Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company review: layout offline attempts to build a Chinese version of COSTCO

Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company review: layout offline attempts to build a Chinese version of COSTCO

Event: Antarctic e-commerce announced on December 13, 2019, in order to optimize the company’s business layout, the company plans to invest in the company with the shareholding platform of the core team of the offline retail project and Mr. Zhang Yuxiang and Ms. Zhang Yun.

Among them, Antarctic e-commerce, partnership, Zhang 深圳桑拿网 Yuxiang, Zhang Yun contributed 40 million yuan, 30 million yuan, 20 million yuan, and 10 million yuan respectively, and the shareholding ratios were 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10%.

It focuses on cost-effective new domestic goods grocery stores and draws on the advantages of retail companies such as Costco.

  1) Goods: Since the company’s online channels have been committed to becoming a mass home lifestyle brand, the 19H1 authorized categories have covered 320 sub-categories, so for offline grocery stores, we believe that Antarctic e-commerce will also include large textiles.Household, electronics, small household appliances, food and other categories are expected to be dominated by Antarctic e-commerce’s relatively strong large textile products in the early stage.

  2) Price: We believe that the products are still mainly cost-effective, and the retail markup rate is not expected to be high.

Cooperate with high-quality supply chain, take offline retail monopoly as the channel, use the difference in sales income and consumer-end membership fees as the source of profit, and do not bear the risk of inventory.

  1) Inventory risk: We expect a model similar to the main brand of Hailan House, and the cooperation factory will bear the inventory risk.

  2) Store opening model: We expect that the joint venture company will mainly open stores directly in the early stage. Explore the store opening model. When the model matures, it may increase the joint venture or direct sales model.

  3) Store situation: We expect to focus on business districts (including shopping malls, pedestrian streets, etc.) with relatively high traffic, and the first store is expected to open in the second half of 2020.

  4) Profit model: We expect the company to adopt a membership model similar to COSTCO, with the difference in sales income and consumer-end membership fees as the source of profit.

Impact on the performance of listed companies 1) In the short term, the investment in the business start-up period is large, and the return period is prolonged, which will have a certain adverse impact on the indicators such as the profit margin and net profit of the consolidated caliber (it is expected to have little impact), but it willPlay a positive role in the company’s financial position and operating results.

  2) The company has strong trial and error capabilities.

Air Force companies have also discussed IP-licensed products, logistics parks, and other models, but will quickly shrink related businesses when they find it difficult to make a profit.

The company’s main business has maintained rapid growth, the quality of reports has continued to improve, and the overall expected growth has continued. It is recommended that the company’s GMV growth rate always maintain rapid growth. It is expected that the GMV growth rate will exceed 50% and can achieve the 30 billion target.It has been a big year to reduce holdings for 3 years after the backdoor listing. It is expected that the pressure to reduce holdings will be greatly reduced in 2020. In addition, since the company’s listing, information disclosure has become more transparent, time is interconnected, factoring business quality has gradually improved, and the impact of listed company performance has gradually weakened.The Antarctic e-commerce main business corresponds to only 19 times in 2020, and the company’s equity incentive target for 2019/2020/2021 is 40%, 30%, and 30% of the main business net profit growth target, which is currently estimated to be the highest, and continues to be recommended.

  Earnings forecast: We maintain our expected earnings forecast. We expect the company’s overall revenue for 2019-2021 to be 43.
.

9.8 billion, 54.

03 billion, 64.

93 ppm, with annual growth of 31.

16%, 22.

86%, 20.

18%; the company’s expected net profit attributable to the parent is 12, respectively.

06 billion, 15.

7.3 billion, 20.

47 ppm, an increase of 36 per year.

07%, 30.

38%, 30.

14%.

The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.

49/0.

64/0.

83 yuan corresponds to PE22.

00/16.

87/12.

97 times.

  Risk reminder: service fee rate drops, platform rules change, accounts receivable risk, and offline channel development is less than expected.