SF Holdings (002352): Net profit increased by 27% in 19 years, epidemic boosted online consumption and boosted demand for express delivery

SF Holdings (002352): Net profit increased by 27% in 19 years, epidemic boosted online consumption and boosted demand for express delivery
Net profit for the year 19 increased by 27%, and the epidemic boosted online consumption and increased demand for courier services. Event: The company disclosed its 19-year performance report: 2019 revenue of 1121.9.3 billion, an increase of 23 previously.37%, net profit attributable to mother 57.970,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.24%, performance is in line with expectations.By quarter, 4Q achieved revenue of 334.23 trillion, an increase of 30 in ten years.69%, net profit attributable to mother 14.86 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.78%, mainly due to the promotion of preferential e-commerce pieces or the unit price of at least 16% to 19 per year.77 yuan, coupled with peak season vehicles, increased labor costs, etc. have led to an improvement in gross profit.  At the same time, January business data was released: January revenue totaled 116.2.8 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.4%, of which the express delivery business revenue was 111.500 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.64%, business volume 5.6.6 billion pieces, an increase of 40 in ten years.45%, single ticket income temporarily reduced by 21.23% to 19.7 yuan, up 2 from the previous month.07%, budget, revenue from supply chain business4.7.8 billion.  4Q business volume grew faster than expected.The company cut into low-end e-commerce express in 19Q2. Since the introduction of special e-commerce parts, the business volume has continuously increased (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 7%, 11%, 30%, 49% respectively).In January 2020, the company first proposed that the Spring Festival should not be closed, and the business volume in January was 5.6.6 billion pieces, an increase of 40 in ten years.5%.Based on the estimated 4 billion express delivery services in January by the State Post Office, the company’s January business volume accounts for about 14 of the industry.15%, during the epidemic period, the company resumed work at a higher rate, the scope of distribution expanded, and the business volume growth rate remained high.At present, SF, JD.com, and China Post have basically resumed work, and the rate of return to other express delivery companies has reached 66.7%, the company’s 南京桑拿网 business volume is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the first quarter of 20 years.  4Q peak season business expansion caused increased costs.With the arrival of the 4Q e-commerce promotion season (double 11 / double 12), the express delivery industry has entered a peak season, and the company’s business volume growth rate exceeded expectations, especially the double 12 business growth rate reached 55%.It is required that the company’s temporary increase in capacity, transit sites, staffing, and operating costs increase, but the company’s business volume continues to grow, capacity is released, and scale effects are transferred. It is expected that operating costs will be well controlled in the future.  The epidemic spurred increased demand for express delivery, and the direct sales model was larger and more capable of resisting risks.During the epidemic, online consumption 上海夜网论坛 surged, driving demand for express delivery. As one of the three normal operating express delivery companies designated by the State Post Bureau, SF Express significantly increased its brand influence and replaced the direct delivery model of the company when the combined express delivery company could not fully resume work.With remote end-of-line control capabilities, diversified business layout capabilities, resource guarantee capabilities, and cost control capabilities, the company has the operational flexibility and anti-risk capabilities of its operations.In addition, during the epidemic, land transportation was blocked, and the advantage of the fleet was restored. The 58 cargo aircraft owned by the company significantly improved its transportation capacity, guaranteed the company’s increase in the growth rate of aging parts, and boosted profit growth.  Profit forecast: We expect the epidemic to drive online consumer demand. The company’s multi-level products and quality service quality are conducive to the increase in business volume and the enhancement of brand effects.At the same time, from 2/17 to the end of the epidemic prevention and control work, toll roads throughout the country are exempted from vehicle tolls. The company’s transportation costs have been saved and transformed. The state has introduced policies that courier companies are exempt from compensation and corporate insurance unit payments are reduced.The impact of delicate epidemics on enterprises.We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 67 in 20 and 21 respectively.800 million, 78.870,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, 16%, and EPS are 1.54 yuan 1.At 79 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 30 times and 26 times respectively, maintaining the investment recommendation.  Risk warning: business growth forecast, fierce price competition, new business development than expected, etc.