Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company review: layout offline attempts to build a Chinese version of COSTCO

Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company review: layout offline attempts to build a Chinese version of COSTCO

Event: Antarctic e-commerce announced on December 13, 2019, in order to optimize the company’s business layout, the company plans to invest in the company with the shareholding platform of the core team of the offline retail project and Mr. Zhang Yuxiang and Ms. Zhang Yun.

Among them, Antarctic e-commerce, partnership, Zhang 深圳桑拿网 Yuxiang, Zhang Yun contributed 40 million yuan, 30 million yuan, 20 million yuan, and 10 million yuan respectively, and the shareholding ratios were 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10%.

It focuses on cost-effective new domestic goods grocery stores and draws on the advantages of retail companies such as Costco.

  1) Goods: Since the company’s online channels have been committed to becoming a mass home lifestyle brand, the 19H1 authorized categories have covered 320 sub-categories, so for offline grocery stores, we believe that Antarctic e-commerce will also include large textiles.Household, electronics, small household appliances, food and other categories are expected to be dominated by Antarctic e-commerce’s relatively strong large textile products in the early stage.

  2) Price: We believe that the products are still mainly cost-effective, and the retail markup rate is not expected to be high.

Cooperate with high-quality supply chain, take offline retail monopoly as the channel, use the difference in sales income and consumer-end membership fees as the source of profit, and do not bear the risk of inventory.

  1) Inventory risk: We expect a model similar to the main brand of Hailan House, and the cooperation factory will bear the inventory risk.

  2) Store opening model: We expect that the joint venture company will mainly open stores directly in the early stage. Explore the store opening model. When the model matures, it may increase the joint venture or direct sales model.

  3) Store situation: We expect to focus on business districts (including shopping malls, pedestrian streets, etc.) with relatively high traffic, and the first store is expected to open in the second half of 2020.

  4) Profit model: We expect the company to adopt a membership model similar to COSTCO, with the difference in sales income and consumer-end membership fees as the source of profit.

Impact on the performance of listed companies 1) In the short term, the investment in the business start-up period is large, and the return period is prolonged, which will have a certain adverse impact on the indicators such as the profit margin and net profit of the consolidated caliber (it is expected to have little impact), but it willPlay a positive role in the company’s financial position and operating results.

  2) The company has strong trial and error capabilities.

Air Force companies have also discussed IP-licensed products, logistics parks, and other models, but will quickly shrink related businesses when they find it difficult to make a profit.

The company’s main business has maintained rapid growth, the quality of reports has continued to improve, and the overall expected growth has continued. It is recommended that the company’s GMV growth rate always maintain rapid growth. It is expected that the GMV growth rate will exceed 50% and can achieve the 30 billion target.It has been a big year to reduce holdings for 3 years after the backdoor listing. It is expected that the pressure to reduce holdings will be greatly reduced in 2020. In addition, since the company’s listing, information disclosure has become more transparent, time is interconnected, factoring business quality has gradually improved, and the impact of listed company performance has gradually weakened.The Antarctic e-commerce main business corresponds to only 19 times in 2020, and the company’s equity incentive target for 2019/2020/2021 is 40%, 30%, and 30% of the main business net profit growth target, which is currently estimated to be the highest, and continues to be recommended.

  Earnings forecast: We maintain our expected earnings forecast. We expect the company’s overall revenue for 2019-2021 to be 43.

9.8 billion, 54.

03 billion, 64.

93 ppm, with annual growth of 31.

16%, 22.

86%, 20.

18%; the company’s expected net profit attributable to the parent is 12, respectively.

06 billion, 15.

7.3 billion, 20.

47 ppm, an increase of 36 per year.

07%, 30.

38%, 30.


The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.



83 yuan corresponds to PE22.



97 times.

  Risk reminder: service fee rate drops, platform rules change, accounts receivable risk, and offline channel development is less than expected.

Guangyuyuan (600771): Continue to expand the quality of pharmacy terminal operations or usher in improvements

Guangyuyuan (600771): Continue to expand the quality of pharmacy terminal operations or usher in improvements

Event: In 2018, the company’s operating income and net profit after deduction were approximately 16.

200 million, 3.

800 million US dollars, the annual growth rate is about 38.

5%, 81成都桑拿网.

4%; operating income in the fourth quarter of 2018, net profit after deduction is approximately 6.

0 billion, 1.

500 million US dollars, the annual growth rate is about 38.

6%, 35.


Continue to expand pharmacy terminals, and the quality of operations may usher in improvement.

The company’s 2018 revenue was approximately 16.

2 trillion, the annual growth rate is about 38.


The income of traditional Chinese medicine is about 12.

80,000 yuan, an increase of about 34 in ten years.

8%; Fine Chinese medicine income is about 2.

10,000 yuan, an increase of about 52 in ten years.

9%; health wine income is about 0.

500 million, an increase of about 106% in ten years.

In terms of different products, the average turtle age set income is about 400 million, which increases by 4 every year.

3%; Ding Kun Dan Shui Mi Wan’s income is about 3.

9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 39%; ordinary An Gong Niuhuang Wan income is about 2.

USD 600 million, a year-on-year growth rate of about 99%.

The rapid growth of the company’s revenue is initially to strengthen the development of terminal channels. At present, its products have covered nearly 150,000 (+ 50%) chain stores across the country, of which nearly 40,000 are management terminals (+ 33%).

Through continuous improvement of the market layout and the construction of the marketing system, and the promotion of channel sinking and coverage, the product market share and terminal sales rate have been continuously improved.

The company’s non-net profit during the period was approximately 3.

8% 10%, a year-on-year increase of about 81%, the specific analysis is as follows: 1) gross profit margin dropped 81%, year-on-year decline of about 1.

Three of them are mainly due to the increase in the proportion of business and changes in income structure; 2) The expense ratio during the period is about 49.

3%, a decline of about 7 a year.

6 units; of which management expenses are flat, sales expense growth rate is lower than revenue growth rate, and overall control is better.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, operating income and net profit after deduction were approximately 6.

0 billion, 1.

500 million US dollars, the annual growth rate is about 38.

6%, 35.

7%, the single quarter gross margin fell, related to supplementary depreciation.

Accounts receivable at the end of the period was approximately 13.

4 ‰, an annual increase of about 82%, related to the increase in the number of new terminals.
In the 2018 annual report, the company put forward its operating targets for 2019, namely “revenue 20 billion and profit 4”.
200 million “, lower performance growth expectations, or shift management focus to improve operating quality.

With the improvement of product bargaining power and the consolidation of the system, it is expected that accounts receivable and cash flow may improve in 2019.

The problem of sufficient production capacity was solved, and the product line was gradually enriched.

1) Solutions with sufficient capacity, product lines are gradually enriched.

The company has abundant reserve products, most of which are OTC varieties of medical insurance.

At present, the new plant has been put into use, and the rich product line is conducive to the company’s breakthrough in reducing revenue and consolidating its brand power in chain terminals.

At the same time, we expect that Dingkundan oral liquid will increase the market launch of Guilingjijiu, or bring new growth points; 2) Actively expand the sales network and synergistically build brands with products.

Continue to strengthen cooperation with leading national and regional leading commercial and top 100 chain drug stores. At present, the number of hospitals covered by the company increased to 4,791, OTC terminals increased to 150,000, and nearly 40,000 management terminals.

At the same time, the promotion of good pregnancy counters and other activities, the brand power has gradually increased.

Earnings forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.

27 yuan, 1.

61 yuan, 2.

03 yuan (the original forecast was 1 for 2019-2020).

86 yuan, 2.

The reduction is due to the expected decline in product growth and an increase in the sales expense ratio at the same time. The corresponding price-earnings ratios are 26 times, 21 times, and 16 times.

We believe that the company’s promotion of products has gradually increased, the number of terminal channel layouts has grown rapidly, performance growth and quality have improved or exceeded expectations, and we maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Product sales may not meet expectations, and market expansion may not meet expectations.

Po Laiya (603605): Multi-brand, multi-channel operation drives continued high growth

Po Laiya (603605): Multi-brand, multi-channel operation drives continued high growth

Event: The 无锡夜网company achieved revenue of 23 in 2011.

600 million, +32 per year.

4%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

900 million, +43 per year.

0%, net profit after deduction is +50.


The reason for the company’s profit growth is that the profitability of online sales is higher than offline, and the increase in online revenue in 2018 has increased the company’s profits as a whole.

The gross profit margin increased, and the expense ratio decreased during the period: the gross profit margin increased by 2.

3pp to 64.

0%, the period expense ratio (including research and development expenses) decreased by 1.

02pp to 46.


The financial expense ratio decreased by 1.

46pp to -0.

5%; sales expense ratio increased by 1.

87pp to 37.

5%, due to the increase in publicity and promotion costs and increase in advertising investment; the “management + R & D” expense ratio decreased by 1.

42pp to 9.

4%, strict cost control, rationalization of costs and significant benefits.

Brands: Multi-brand assets with “differentiation and youth”.

The company’s products cover skin care products, make-up, cleansing and care, aromatherapy and other fields, covering brands such as Perla, Youzilai, Hanya, Youya, Cat Rose, Yuefuti.

(1) Brands: The revenue of the Polia brand in 2018 was 20.

900 million, accounting for 88.

8% +32 per year.

4%; Youzilai brand revenue 1.

300 million, accounting for 5.

6%, +41 per year.


(2) Rejuvenation: The company is moving closer to rejuvenation in new product development and brand marketing. In 2018, it launched the “Rechargeable Ampoule”, with newly signed spokespersons Li Yifeng, Luo Yunxi, and Liu Yinglun.

(3) Multi-category: The company advances from skincare to makeup and expands the category to enhance the flash point. In 2018, the company’s main brand, Polaya, launched new products such as the printed color Baha insbaha makeup series and bubble SPA masks. The future makeup category will be created.First class explosion.

Channel: Daily chemical, single-brand stores and e-commerce troika go hand in hand.

(1) Strong development of e-commerce platforms: The online share continues to increase, and social e-commerce is the point of increase in the future.

E-commerce channels achieved revenue in 201810.

3 billion, accounting for 43.

6% + 60% per year.

In 2019, the company is expected to account for over 50% of its online presence.

(2) Single-brand stores: channel revenue of single-brand stores in 20181.

100 million, launched nearly 300 SKU new products, covering skin care, makeup, health and other categories.It is estimated that there will be more than 2,000 single-brand stores in 2019, which will be the new growth point of the company’s future revenue.

(3) The channel of franchise stores is the company’s most important sales channel at present, and the revenue of the channel of franchise stores in 2018.

0深圳丝袜会所 billion, accounting for 42.

5%, +7 per year.


Profit forecast and rating.

The company is a leading domestic beauty cosmetic company. The management efficiency has been steadily improved and the performance has grown rapidly. It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.

800 million, 5.

100 million and 6.

800 million, EPS is 1.

89 yuan, 2.

51 yuan and 3.

40 yuan, corresponding to PE is 34/25/19 times.

Considering that the company has core competitiveness such as R & D strength, multi-brand matrix, and omnichannel, it maintains a “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: industry competition or intensification; channel structure risk; new project incubation risk.

Dongfeng shares (601515): 2018 performance increased by 14.

7% concerned about progress in pharmaceutical packaging and industrial marijuana

Dongfeng shares (601515): 2018 performance increased by 14.

7% concerned about progress in pharmaceutical packaging and industrial marijuana

The 2018 results were slightly higher than the expected 2018 results announced by Dongfeng: operating income33.

28 ppm, an increase of 18 in ten years.

76%; net profit attributable to parent company 7.

48 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

69%, corresponding to a profit of 0.

67 yuan, slightly higher than our expectations.

By quarter, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by +7 twice.

4% / + 14.

0% / + 9.

2% / + 45.

6%, net profit attributable to mothers increases by +3 each year.武汉夜网论坛

1% /-2.

8% /-17.

0% / + 89.

8%, the fourth quarter performance improved significantly, due to increased investment income.

At the same time, the company announced a price of 2.

Acquired 75% equity of Guizhou Chiba, a pharmaceutical packaging company (43X in 18 years, 29X for pro forma) for US $ 5.9 billion, and plans to issue convertible bonds as the source of funds for the equity acquisition.

Development trend 1. The main business of cigarette labels is steadily improving, and the non-smoking label business is rapidly increasing.

1) Tobacco label main business: conventional revenue 27.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

59%, mainly benefited from the rapid growth of the industry’s “small, medium and short burst” tobacco innovation category and the company’s export of tobacco label business; 2) Non-smoking label business: the growth of dairy product revenue increased by 169.

84%, which is due to the improvement of production and operation efficiency of Australian dairy factories and the development of internal sales channels in China; the revenue of non-smoking standard consumer business increased by 137.

29%, benefiting from the social packaging and printing production base in the southwestern region officially started operation; PET base film and functional film product revenue increased 42.

02%, affected by the overall market improvement and product quality and brand enhancement, external sales increased rapidly.

2. The profitability of production cost growth is under pressure in 2018.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 fell by ten years.

24ppt, mainly due to the increase in raw materials, rising labor costs and green energy expenditure expectations; during the period, the expense ratio fell by 0.

94ppt, the cost control ability has been strengthened.

3. Pay attention to the progress of mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical package industry and industrial cannabis business.

1) The company acquired Guizhou Chiba Fatli Pharmaceutical Packaging to broaden its downstream industry; 2) The joint-stock company Yunnan Hanxin Fatli industrial cannabis market has a synergistic effect with the heating and non-burning smoking utensil business, and observes the subsequent application of new products in the field of tobacco.

Earnings forecast is based on a pick-up in downstream industries, raising 2019 / 20e earnings forecast by 6% / 5% to 0.


75 yuan / share.

Estimates and recommendations currently correspond to 19 / 20e 15.


1x P / E.Maintain recommendation level and raise target price by 9% to 12 based on profit forecast.

9 yuan, corresponding to 20e 17.

2x P / E, 22% upside.

Risks Price fluctuations of raw materials; increased industry competition; policy risks.

COFCO Biochemical (000930) 2018 Annual Report Review: Asset Integration Completed, Fuel Fuel Ethanol Market Space Increases

COFCO Biochemical (000930) 2018 Annual Report Review: Asset Integration Completed, Fuel Fuel Ethanol Market Space Increases

The event company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 17.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 11%.

40%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

8.3 billion, with a basic budget benefit of zero.

26 yuan / share.

The company achieved operating income of 46 in the first quarter of 2019.

50,000 yuan, achieving 5793 net profit attributable to listed companies.

460,000 yuan.

Opinion fuel ethanol is expected to accelerate initially, the market space is huge.

Fifteen departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Expanding Biofuel Ethanol Production and Promoting the Use of Vehicle Ethanol Gasoline”, which states that by 2020, vehicle ethanolFull gasoline coverage.

In June 2018 and March 2019, Tianjin and Shanxi successively released alternatives.

Taking into account the expansion of the basic coverage of ethanol gasoline nationwide in 2020, the promotion and implementation policies of other provinces and cities will accelerate.

According to the plan, the demand for fuel ethanol will reach 1,200 tons, and the existing capacity of fuel ethanol will be less than 300 tons, and a supply and demand gap of 500 tons may appear.

After the reorganization of the company, the market share has increased significantly, and progress has benefited first.

The company’s asset reorganization was completed and its market share increased.

The company passed the issuance in 20188.

8.3 billion shares were purchased in the form of a 100% stake in Biochemical Energy, Biochemical and Huali Investment by the holders of the biochemical investment at an issue price of 9.

38 yuan / share, has been listed on December 19, 2018.

The successful completion of asset reorganization has gradually consolidated the company’s level in the domestic corn deep processing industry.

Revenue from the fuel ethanol business increased, and product gross margins further improved.

The international crude oil price was at a high level in the first half of 2018, and the international crude oil price dropped in the second half of the year. The company’s fuel ethanol products achieved continuous profitability.

In 2018, the company’s fuel ethanol operating income was 81.

740,000 yuan, up 8 before.

74%, gross margin is 20.

31%, an increase of 6 per year.


Maintain Overweight rating is expected to be 0 for 2019-2021.

31, 0.

36, 0.

49 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 7 on May 6.

52 yuan, PE is 24, 21, 15 times, maintaining the level of overweight.

Risk reminders: disease risk; prices fall short 南京夜网 of expectations; market demand is lower than expected.

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Performance Express Commentary: Q4 Performance Accelerates to a Beautiful End

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Performance Express Commentary: Q4 Performance Accelerates to a Beautiful End

Event: The company released the 2019 annual performance report, and the company achieved operating income of 119 in 2019.

1.4 billion, an annual increase of 26.

57%; realized net profit attributable to mother 20.

24 ppm, a 37-year increase.

64%; basic profit return 2.

33 yuan.

Blue and white accelerated significantly, Bfen continued high growth, Q4 performance accelerated again.

In 19Q4, the company’s revenue and profit growth rate was 13.

03% / 61.

84%, the performance exceeded market expectations, and the profit growth rate further accelerated from the first three quarters, the quarter Q1-Q4 profit-side growth accelerated quarter by quarter, mainly due to the acceleration of blue and white, Bofen continued high growth, the market outside the province continued to perform well.

In terms of different products, the company continued to adhere to the “grasp the middle of the two heads”. The Q4 blue and white series continued to accelerate, mainly due to the rapid volume increase after the end of the volume control. We expect that the growth rate of the blue and white series will gradually reach more than 40%.The quarter’s high growth momentum is mainly due to the company’s full liberalization of Bofen, which will be introduced to the country and sold quickly. We expect the growth rate of Bofen to exceed 50%; the old Baifen and Panama series products are expected to achieve double rankings.More than a few years of growth, the growth rate is relatively slower than the overall level.

In terms of market, we expect that the contribution of the markets outside the province will increase, and the proportion of the markets outside the province is expected to increase further. Among them, the markets outside the province outside Shanxi will be connected by dots. It is expected that the high growth momentum will continue in 2020.Flooding continues to accelerate.

If short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term growth momentum, blue and white will become the main growth point.

Judging from the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the blue and white series will be affected to a certain extent due to the reduction of party banquet seats in the short term.

We believe that short-term fluctuations will not affect the expected positive momentum. According to channel feedback, it is expected that more than 30% of the scheduled tasks will be completed in the first quarter. The company is still expected to achieve steady growth 南京桑拿网 in 2020. From a gradual perspective, the increase mainly comes from blue and white.Blue and white in 20 years, 30 years to achieve double billion growth (sales caliber), Bofen is mainly based on volume control, the goal has risen steadily.

In terms of specific operations, the company’s expansion of the blue and white series will complete the core market separation, that is, the Qing 20 will focus on 100 markets across the country, and the Qing 30 will focus on 50 markets; and the core terminal separation will be achieved. The Qing 20 and Qing 30 will have long-term contracts, respectively.More biased towards group purchase operation.
Qing 30 is more inclined to group purchase operation.

The potential of the brand has continued to expand, and internal and external repairs have helped Qingxiang’s originator return.

The 杭州桑拿 company’s 2020 strategy was adjusted from “pulling the two heads to the middle” to “pulling the middle and high control bottom”. We believe that this strategy is correct and effective. It can enable the company to use the growth of blue and white to eliminate the problems caused by the rapid growth in the past three years.The aim is to focus on the company’s brand power and drive the return of brand value. Blue and white will become the main driving force for the company’s sustainable development.

Although the company defines 2020 as the year of deep adjustment, the adjustment of Fenjiu is the adjustment of product structure, the adjustment of the market, the adjustment of strategic and tactics, and not the adjustment of the obvious decline in performance.

In the medium and long term, we believe that the advantages of Fenjiu brand continue to expand, the market outside the province is accelerating, the blank market needs to be further developed, and the future development potential is still accumulated. With the improvement of China Resources Synergy and internal distribution incentives, the company is expected to become a successful breakthrough in the countrySub-high-end brand.

Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.

We slightly adjust our profit forecast for 2019. Due to the unpredictable characteristics of the recent epidemic, we will not adjust our profit forecast for 2020 for now.

We estimate the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 119.



970,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

57% / 18.

62% / 17.

43%; net profit is 20.



420,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.

64% / 24.

33% / 20.

86%, corresponding EPS is 2 respectively.


51 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: San Gong’s consumption restrictions increase; the epidemic continues to spread; food quality accidents.

Huaxin Cement (600801): Volume and Price Rise in First Quarter, Earnings Exceed Expectations

Huaxin Cement (600801): Volume and Price Rise in First Quarter, Earnings Exceed Expectations

The company reported revenue of 59 in the first quarter of 2019.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 32.

53%; net profit attributable to mother 10.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 90 in ten years.

6%; net profit after deduction to mother 9.

7 ppm, an increase of 89 in ten years.

61%, basic profit income is 0.

68 yuan.

Regional demand is high, and cumulative production capacity has increased. Q1 sales have exceeded expectations. In Q1 2019, the company’s comprehensive sales volume of cement clinker became approximately 1510, a cumulative increase of 19%, exceeding market expectations.

The main one is the company’s core markets, the two lakes, and the demand boom in Yunnan and other regions continues to improve. (In Q1 of 2019, Hubei and Yunnan cement production increased by 14 each.

3佛山桑拿网%, 6.

0%); the second is that the company ‘s production capacity has increased on average every year. At the end of March last year, the acquisition of 100% equity in Chongqing Tower Cement (5000t / d clinker production line, 2.5 million tons of cement production capacity) was completed.3000t / d project. The second 3000t / d project in Xigaze was completed and put into operation, adding a total of 477 new cement production capacity.

Both volume and price are rising, operating leverage is obvious, Q1 has a record high profit in the same period in Q1. In Q1, the company’s cement clinker ton revenue was about 345 yuan, an increase of 22 yuan; the gross profit per ton was 127 yuan, an increase of more than 18 yuan; at the same time, the management cost and the financial cost of the tonExpenses dropped significantly, reducing RMB 3 and RMB 5, respectively, mainly due to the company’s sales volume increasing and cost dilution significantly. Second, the company’s capital structure improved, and the loss rate continued to drop to 42.

2%; the company’s Q1 ton net profit reached 73 yuan, a record high over the same period.

Actively lay out new growth and extend the industrial chain. Aggregate is the highlight. The company has been actively deploying aggregate, environmental protection, new materials and other businesses outside the company’s main cement business to create new growth points. Among them, the rapid development of aggregate business has brought about the extension of the industrial chain length.According to the company’s annual report, the company plans to realize the replacement of aggregate sales in 2662 in 2019, and complete the construction of aggregate projects such as Sichuan Quxian, Quzhou, Hunan, Changyang, Hubei, Jinghong, Lincang, Zhaotong, etc., and start 9 total annual production capacity.Construction of the 2250 highest aggregate project started (capacity of 2,500 tons in 2018).

Investment suggestion: Maintain the “Buy” rating company as a cement leader in the two lakes and southwestern markets, and lead in Tibet and overseas markets. The core regional market demand is both consolidated (East China) and flexible (southwest and overseas), and the supply pattern is good.The supply and demand relationship is expected to continue the best trend; meanwhile, the company’s active layout of new businesses such as aggregates will bring new growth; we expect the company’s EPS to be 3 in 2019-2021.



45 yuan, according to the latest closing price of PE is 8 respectively.



8 times, PB is 2.



54 times; referring to the latest progress of Conch Cement, the estimated net asset PB of 2019 is 1.

6 times, considering that the company’s ROE profit center has improved significantly and is higher than Conch Cement, and has outstanding profit elasticity as a regional leader, giving the company 2.

2 PB, quantified net assets by 201913.

22 yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value of 29.

08 yuan / share; maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: demand growth exceeds expectations, new business expansion fails to meet expectations, industry increase in supply exceeds expectations

Xusheng shares (603305): Q4 gross profit margin further growth annual report performance is lower than expected

Xusheng shares (603305): Q4 gross profit 都市夜网 margin further growth annual report performance is lower than expected

Event: The company announced its annual report results and achieved operating income in 201811.

0 million yuan, an increase of 48 in ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.


Gross margin growth declined, Q4 and expected results were lower than expected company Q4 to achieve operating income2.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

6 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.


Benefit model 3 ramped up production capacity, the company’s revenue maintained high growth, and Q4 Tesla produced a total of 6.

10,000 Model 3s, an increase of 15 from the previous month.

3%, weekly production exceeded 6,000.

The increase in gross profit margin caused the company’s profit growth to be slower than its revenue. The company’s gross profit margin in Q4 was 36.

9% (year -5.

2pct, -5 ring.

0pct), a higher gross margin of 39.

7% (year -4.


The company’s expense ratio has steadily decreased during the period, and the sales expense ratio in 2018 was 1.

2% (one year-0.

4pct), the management fee is 7.

8% (one year-0.

2pct), financial expense ratio -0.

9% (year -1.


The reasons for the decline in the company’s Q4 and higher gross profit margins were: 1) The depreciation expenses increased due to the construction of new plant No. 6 plants and the installation of equipment.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 2090 over last year.

30,000 yuan, the impact on gross margin is about 1.

9pct; 2) Changes in product structure.

We believe that with the increase in production and sales scale, Tesla may reduce supply chain costs in order to profit, and the company’s gross profit margin will still have downward pressure in the future.

Tesla’s launch of new cars + acceleration of localization, the company enjoys the industrial chain dividend, the company’s Model 3 production capacity increased, and its supply to Tesla increased rapidly. In 2018, the company achieved profitability for Tesla.

700 million, accounting for 61 of operating income.

1%, a year-on-year growth rate of 61.


Tesla recently released the second heavy-duty model Y, sharing the same platform with Model 3, sharing 75% of parts and components. It is expected to start production in the fall of 2020. The company actively follows up with Tesla’s needs and conducts deep cooperation.Relationship, we think the company is expected to win more new orders.

In addition, Tesla’s localization is accelerating. The Shanghai plant is 北京夜生活网 expected to start production at the end of the year. The initial weekly production capacity is 3,000 Model 3s. Tesla is bound to increase its local supply share and the company’s supply is expected to grow again.

According to Tesla’s goal of producing 10,000 vehicles per week in 2019 and delivering 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles per year (a 45% -65% increase over the same period), the company’s performance is expected to maintain high growth. Profit forecast and investment recommendations for the company 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

94 yuan, 1.

19 yuan, 1.

53 yuan, corresponding to 2019?
PE will be 37 in 2021.

9 times, 29.

9 times, 23.

4 times.

Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: Tesla’s sales are lower than expected, and product prices fall

Urban Development Environment (000885): High-speed profitable steady growth of waste power generation orders is nearing timing

Urban Development Environment (000885): High-speed profitable steady growth of waste power generation orders is nearing timing

I. Overview of the event The company announced the 2019 Interim Report, which achieved revenue of 10 in the first half of the year.

600 million, +13 in ten years.

5%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

400 million, +17 a year.


  Second, 武汉夜生活网 analyze and judge that the increase in toll revenue has driven profit growth, financial expenses have improved, and the company’s profit has grown rapidly. The growth rate is in the upper range of performance forecast, which is slightly higher than our expectations.

The steady increase in Xu Pingnan’s high-speed traffic has driven high-speed toll revenue growth11.

6%, the company’s main driver of growth in the first half of the year, accounting for 20% of the company’s operating mileage of the G312 Line Xixia Inner Village to Dinghe section of the new road construction project has begun within the year, is expected to contribute to the steady growth of the high-speed plate continued to contribute to the momentum.

On the whole, the company’s main business gross profit margins are basically stable, the management expense ratio is basically flat, and the repayment of some of the terminated loans results in a reduction in the financial expense ratio.

1% to 8.

3%, asset-liability ratio decreased by 4 compared with the beginning of the year.

5% to 63.


  The company has secured nearly metered orders for waste-to-energy generation, and promoted rapid implementation of projects in progress. In the first half of the year, the company took the lead in advancing the three-year action plan of Henan Vein Industrial Park.9,000 tons / day, corresponding to an investment of 38 million.

Three projects in Huaxian, Runan and Dengzhou have been put into operation, and they will start to contribute operating profit in 2021 according to the projection of the two-year construction period.

In order to make up for the shortcomings of waste incineration, we have conducted bidding for 17 projects in Henan Province in the statistical year, and Chengfa Environment has won nearly 50% of these orders.

The Air Force Henan Development and Reform Commission has stated at the provincial vein industrial park construction site meeting that it will strive to start another 25 domestic waste incineration power generation projects in 2019. The company’s projects in hand promote rapid implementation.

  The major shareholders and the second shareholder fully subscribed for the rights issue, and the source of funds for the large-scale investment and construction project. The company announced that it had raised no more than US $ 1.2 billion through the rights issue to repay the company’s interest-bearing debt and supplement the working capital.

The controlling shareholder Henan Investment Group and the second shareholder Zhonglian Cement promised to subscribe in full. At present, the rights issue has been approved by the shareholders’ general meeting and still needs the approval of the CSRC.

We expect that the rights issue in the second half of the year is expected to be completed. At that time, it is expected to reduce the company’s financial costs by more than 40 million yuan, and at the same time provide protection for the implementation of future industrial park projects.

  Third, the investment proposal company’s order scale continues to grow, basically in line with the expectations of our long-term report, to maintain the company’s truck 2019?
EPS 2021.



The forecast of 69 corresponds to the current expected PE 8/9 / 6x, followed by the average forecast PE of 11x in the high-speed sector in 2019. At the same time, taking into account the performance growth brought by the solid waste business, the judgment of 10 billion reasonable market value remains unchanged, and continues.Give “Recommended” rating.

  4. Risk warnings: 1. The policy of Henan Aviation Industrial Park has fallen short of expectations; 2. The amount of company orders received has fallen short of expectations; 3. The implementation of the project has fallen short of expectations.

Kodali (002850): Increase in gross profit margin of core business and continuous improvement of production capacity layout

Kodali (002850): Increase in gross profit margin of core business and continuous improvement of production capacity layout
Kodali’s 1H19 results exceeded our expectations and announced the first half of 2019 results: operating income11.70,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.7%; net profit attributable to mothers is 80.25 million yuan, an annual increase of 259.2%, corresponding to a profit of 0.38 yuan, exceeding our expectations, mainly due to the company’s capacity release, the gross profit margin of the lithium battery structure business increased. Lithium battery structural parts business has grown rapidly, and gross profit margin has increased.1H19 company’s lithium battery structure business income was 10.50,000 yuan, an increase of 67 in ten years.3%, the gross profit margin increased by an average of 10.1ppt to 24.8%; the increase in gross profit margin of lithium battery structural parts is mainly due to the release of economies of scale, strengthened cost control, and 1H19 aluminum and other major raw material prices fell slightly.1H19 automotive structural parts, other structural parts business income was 0.8/0.500 million, the previous change -49.8% / 183.0%.1H19’s consolidated gross profit margin was 24.3%, an increase of 8 per year.7ppt.Among them, the 2Q19 company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 13.7ppt to 28.0%. Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly.Thanks to economies of scale and strengthened cost control, the company’s sales in 1H19 decreased the management expense ratio by 0.6/0.7ppt to 2.0% / 4.6%.The company increased its R & D efforts in lithium battery safety and other fields, and the R & D expense ratio increased by more than 2 in 1H19.5ppt to 5.8%.1H19 Net cash inflow from operating activities2.5 trillion, earlier 1H18 net inflow of 0.900 million increase of 167.The increase of 5% was mainly due to the increase in the company’s revenue scale, the increase in cash inflows in the provision of goods and services, and the expansion of the company’s bill discounting scale. Development trend The installed capacity of lithium batteries continues to increase, and the production capacity layout is constantly improved.On January 天津夜网 7, 2019, China’s power battery installed capacity was 34.7Gwh, an increase of 77 per year.0%, of which the installed capacity in July increased by 34 each year.3%, continuing rapid growth.From January to July, the company’s major customers, CATL, BYD, AVIC Lithium, and Xinwanda, achieved rapid growth in installed capacity, which guaranteed the company to expand more market share.At present, the company has completed the construction of the second phase of the Jiangsu and Dalian production bases, and plans to invest 2.The US $ 500 million construction of the first phase of Fujian’s power battery structural components project is mainly for supporting CATL production capacity.After the project is in production, the company is expected to achieve an average annual income of 700 million yuan.We believe that the company will continue 杭州桑拿 to improve the company’s competitive advantage by approaching downstream customers’ production capacity layout, and cooperating with customers in research and development, and deep binding. Earnings Forecasts and Estimates As the company’s earnings exceeded expectations, we raised our 2019/20 earnings forecast55.3% / 60.3% to 0.97/1.30 yuan.The company currently expects a 2019 / 20e P / E of 25.6x / 19.2x, maintain neutral rating, consider raising earnings forecast, raise target price by 16.7% to 28.00 yuan, corresponding to 2019 / 20e P / E is 29x / 22x, corresponding to the current ongoing 12.4% space. Risks New energy vehicle sales risk, lithium battery structural parts price decline risk.