Huaneng Hydropower (600025): Yunnan Northwest DC Transmission and Distribution Price Officially Landed and Company Performance Continues to Improve
Event: On April 2, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Approving the Transmission Price of Northwest Yunnan Special Projects to Guangdong”, which states that the transmission price of Northwest Yunnan HVDC project is per kilowatt-hour.
2 points (including tax and excluding line loss), the transmission price of supporting AC projects in Yunnan Province is 1 per kWh.
50 points; line loss rate of Northwest Yunnan DC project 4.
5%, supporting exchange projects in Yunnan Province do not count line loss.
Opinion: The Northwest Yunnan HVDC transmission exchange price has officially landed, and the price is gradually predicted. The 800KV HVDC transmission line from Northwest Yunnan to Shenzhen has been officially put into production in May 2018. It is a supporting delivery line for the generator set in the Yunnan section of the upper reaches of the Lancang River.The third UHV DC project in operation has a total length of 1954 kilometers, a rated voltage of ± 800 kV, a transmission capacity of 5 million kilowatts, and a total investment of 18.9 billion US dollars.
According to the previous forecast, according to the financial internal rate of return of 8% of the capital, the transmission cost from Yunnan to the upper reaches of the Lancang River to Guangdong was calculated to be zero.
148 yuan / degree. At present, the Development and Reform Commission has approved that the total transmission and distribution prices in northwestern Yunnan and Yunnan province are zero.
107 yuan / degree, 0 lower than the transmission and distribution prices previously predicted.
031 yuan / degree.
The on-grid electricity price of the Lanshang unit was determined as soon as possible. After the supplementary unit can increase the company’s performance, the transmission and distribution price of the northwestern Yunnan to Shenzhen landed.
Taking into account the line loss of DC engineering4.
5%, assuming that all line losses are borne by the power transmitting party.
44 or 0.
At 43 yuan / degree, the corresponding on-grid electricity prices of Lanshang units are 0.
313 and 0.
304 yuan / degree.
The installed capacity of the Yunnan section of the upper reaches of the Lancang River is 5.63 million kilowatts. At present, 4.75 million kilowatts have been put into operation, and the remaining 880,000 kilowatts are expected to be put into full production in 19 years.
The annual designed power generation of Lanshang Yunnan section is 253.
7.9 billion kWh, designed to use hours of 4,508 hours, if the on-grid electricity price is higher than 0.
3 yuan / degree, it is expected to contribute more than 1.4 billion.
The growth rate of hydropower generation in Yunnan from January to February reached 17.
2%, the company’s performance is expected to continue to improve in Yunnan Province from January to February, water is abundant, and hydropower generation capacity is 305.
1 billion degrees, a sharp increase of 17 previously.
2%, the company’s power generation is also expected to increase; in the province’s electricity price, in the first quarter of 2019, the province’s market-based trading 合肥夜网 electricity price was 0.
224 yuan / degree, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.
004 yuan / degree.
In the first quarter of 2018, due to poor water supply, the company’s power generation decreased by 13 each year.
08%, 18-year performance is at a low point, and the rise in volume and price in the first quarter of 19 will help the company’s performance continue to improve.
Profit forecast and forecast Maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 203 in 2019-2020.
4.9 billion and 211.
37 trillion, net profit attributable to mothers 38 trillion and 46 trillion, EPS is 0.
21 and 0.
26 yuan, corresponding to PE 20.
15 and 16.
Risk reminder: the risk of expanding power demand in Guangdong Province, the risk of incoming water exceeding expectations