Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Performance Express Commentary: Q4 Performance Accelerates to a Beautiful End

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Performance Express Commentary: Q4 Performance Accelerates to a Beautiful End

Event: The company released the 2019 annual performance report, and the company achieved operating income of 119 in 2019.

1.4 billion, an annual increase of 26.

57%; realized net profit attributable to mother 20.

24 ppm, a 37-year increase.

64%; basic profit return 2.

33 yuan.

Blue and white accelerated significantly, Bfen continued high growth, Q4 performance accelerated again.

In 19Q4, the company’s revenue and profit growth rate was 13.

03% / 61.

84%, the performance exceeded market expectations, and the profit growth rate further accelerated from the first three quarters, the quarter Q1-Q4 profit-side growth accelerated quarter by quarter, mainly due to the acceleration of blue and white, Bofen continued high growth, the market outside the province continued to perform well.

In terms of different products, the company continued to adhere to the “grasp the middle of the two heads”. The Q4 blue and white series continued to accelerate, mainly due to the rapid volume increase after the end of the volume control. We expect that the growth rate of the blue and white series will gradually reach more than 40%.The quarter’s high growth momentum is mainly due to the company’s full liberalization of Bofen, which will be introduced to the country and sold quickly. We expect the growth rate of Bofen to exceed 50%; the old Baifen and Panama series products are expected to achieve double rankings.More than a few years of growth, the growth rate is relatively slower than the overall level.

In terms of market, we expect that the contribution of the markets outside the province will increase, and the proportion of the markets outside the province is expected to increase further. Among them, the markets outside the province outside Shanxi will be connected by dots. It is expected that the high growth momentum will continue in 2020.Flooding continues to accelerate.

If short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term growth momentum, blue and white will become the main growth point.

Judging from the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the blue and white series will be affected to a certain extent due to the reduction of party banquet seats in the short term.

We believe that short-term fluctuations will not affect the expected positive momentum. According to channel feedback, it is expected that more than 30% of the scheduled tasks will be completed in the first quarter. The company is still expected to achieve steady growth 南京桑拿网 in 2020. From a gradual perspective, the increase mainly comes from blue and white.Blue and white in 20 years, 30 years to achieve double billion growth (sales caliber), Bofen is mainly based on volume control, the goal has risen steadily.

In terms of specific operations, the company’s expansion of the blue and white series will complete the core market separation, that is, the Qing 20 will focus on 100 markets across the country, and the Qing 30 will focus on 50 markets; and the core terminal separation will be achieved. The Qing 20 and Qing 30 will have long-term contracts, respectively.More biased towards group purchase operation.
Qing 30 is more inclined to group purchase operation.

The potential of the brand has continued to expand, and internal and external repairs have helped Qingxiang’s originator return.

The 杭州桑拿 company’s 2020 strategy was adjusted from “pulling the two heads to the middle” to “pulling the middle and high control bottom”. We believe that this strategy is correct and effective. It can enable the company to use the growth of blue and white to eliminate the problems caused by the rapid growth in the past three years.The aim is to focus on the company’s brand power and drive the return of brand value. Blue and white will become the main driving force for the company’s sustainable development.

Although the company defines 2020 as the year of deep adjustment, the adjustment of Fenjiu is the adjustment of product structure, the adjustment of the market, the adjustment of strategic and tactics, and not the adjustment of the obvious decline in performance.

In the medium and long term, we believe that the advantages of Fenjiu brand continue to expand, the market outside the province is accelerating, the blank market needs to be further developed, and the future development potential is still accumulated. With the improvement of China Resources Synergy and internal distribution incentives, the company is expected to become a successful breakthrough in the countrySub-high-end brand.

Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.

We slightly adjust our profit forecast for 2019. Due to the unpredictable characteristics of the recent epidemic, we will not adjust our profit forecast for 2020 for now.

We estimate the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 119.

14/141.

33/165.

970,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

57% / 18.

62% / 17.

43%; net profit is 20.

24/25.

17/30.

420,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.

64% / 24.

33% / 20.

86%, corresponding EPS is 2 respectively.

33/2.

91/3.
51 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: San Gong’s consumption restrictions increase; the epidemic continues to spread; food quality accidents.