Shengyi Technology (600183): CCL Period Attribute Dilutes High Frequency and High Speed Opens Growth Space

Shengyi Technology (600183): CCL Period Attribute Dilutes High Frequency and High Speed Opens Growth Space

The key points of investment are superior in comprehensive strength and widely distributed downstream.

The company’s industry leader is generally solid, with 18 years of revenue of 119.

800 million, ranking second in the world, is expected to catch up with Chao Jiantao to become the first in the world.

In 18Q4, the average price of the company’s main products has been strategically reduced. We believe that the average price of the company’s products will stabilize after entering 2019, and the profitability will improve after the production capacity is increased.

From the perspective of product categories, the company actively lays out high-end copper clad laminate products and PCB fields on the basis of steadily developing the existing mature copper clad laminate technology. It purchases a complete set of PTFE process technology and equipment solutions from Japan’s ZTE Corporation; its subsidiaries, Shengyi Electronics and Huawei,Samsung and others have customer relationships with PCB production capacity of 950,000 feet / month.

The upstream raw materials are strengthened, and the cost side is improved.

The three major raw materials for the copper-clad laminate industry are copper foil, glass fiber material and resin.

In terms of copper foil, domestic PCB copper foil production capacity will increase in 2019. In addition, copper ore prices have fallen and will stabilize in 2019. Copper foil supply and demand conditions and prices are improving.

In terms of fiberglass materials, the domestic electronic yarn production capacity is excessive, the price continues to fall, the price is at a historical low level, and there 西安耍耍网 is still a slight downward trend.

In terms of resin, epoxy resin is a petrochemical product. Due to environmental pressure and insufficient production capacity, prices are on the rise, but they are already at historical highs.

Based on the upstream raw material prices and supply and demand conditions, we predict that the cost side of the copper clad laminate industry will improve.

The downstream PCB stabilized, benefiting the copper clad laminate industry.

After the domestic PCB industry experienced the market downturn in 18Q4, after the Spring Festival in 2019, PCB prices have stabilized, and some corporate orders have shown a warming trend.

The global PCB industry as a whole is still in an upward cycle. China is a copper-clad laminate production center, and downstream demand will increase.

We expect that in 2019, as the world’s largest copper clad laminate company, the upward trend will continue in the trend of stabilization and recovery in the downstream industry.

For the first commercial use of 5G, the demand for high-frequency copper clad laminates caused by base stations and terminals has increased significantly.

Traditional copper-clad materials are difficult to meet the high-speed performance required for 5G substrate construction. High-end copper-clad products have been enriched for a long time and the technical barriers are high.

The company has already laid out the high-frequency and high-speed field, and has strong scientific research capabilities. It has taken the lead in mastering core technologies among domestic-funded enterprises, and independently researched and developed hydrocarbon materials to replace power amplifiers, reaching mass production.

The subsidiary Nantong Special Materials produced high-frequency communication substrates. Trial production was successfully carried out in November 2018, and high-frequency high-speed boards were put into production in January 2019, achieving a breakthrough in domestic production of high-frequency high-speed boards.

By 5G Dongfeng, the company is expected to achieve rapid growth in the medium and long term.

Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2020 will be 11 respectively.

6, 13.

400 million, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 24.

7, 21.

4x coverage for the first time gives Buy rating.

Risk warning: raw material prices, PCB growth rate is less than expected, 5G construction is less than expected.

Depth-Company-UFIDA (600588): Changes and Changes in Domestic Software Leaders in 20 Years

Depth * Company * UFIDA Network (600588): 20 years of domestic software leader changes

On a 20-year scale, UFIDA has maintained a high pace of industry growth, as a leading and model enterprise software, a fully existing replacement.

The industry has ushered in the historical opportunity of cloud and localization, and harvested another 6 for the company?
7 years of high growth opened the window.

Cloud services are at an inflection point, and the industrial and financial landscape is slowly opening.

Maintain BUY rating.

The main points of the support level are 20% CAGR in 20 years, and the software industry is a model.

The company is a domestic first-class enterprise that has grown with the growth of the Chinese software (especially enterprise software) industry. 2001?
In the past 20 years in 2018, it achieved a compound annual growth rate of more than 20% in revenue and a net profit CAGR of 14%.

In the field of ERP software, the company’s market share is about 1/3, ranking first; even depending on the income of the entire Chinese software industry, the company’s share has remained at 2?
5 ‰ level, and the growth rate remained highly consistent.

Therefore, the company is recognized as a recognized model enterprise in the software industry.

The double overlap of cloudization and localization facing the software industry.

Based on the characteristics of the model, the company’s investment logic is shaped by industry logic.

China’s software industry is in a period of overlapping historical opportunities: cloud and localization.

The former is a major trend in the global software industry, from the rise and verification abroad, to the domestic flowering and landing.

Singlely open the exclusive window for domestic enterprises-let alone basic software, and even in the high-end ERP field, 60% of the shares are replaced by overseas products, and the localization rate in chemical, life sciences and other fields is less than 10%.

The opening of the localization of Huawei’s industrial chain marks the opening of the ceiling.

The turning point of cloud transformation is fully realized, and the next round of high-growth 杭州夜网 growth is on the horizon.

Entering the phase of cloud revenue explosion by 2016: 2016?
In 2018, cloud service revenue increased by 34%, 250% and 108%, and 19H1 cloud revenue accounted for about 14% of the overall, which was at the inflection point of the curve.

According to the budget, with a CAGR of 20%, the company’s high-growth stage is expected to continue for another 6?
More than 7 years.

Estimated expected company 2019?
Net profit in 2020 is 8.

700 million, 11.

0 billion and 15.

100 million, corresponding to 0 EPS.

35 yuan, 0.

44 yuan and 0.

61 yuan (up 10% based on the high increase in cloud revenue).

Under the segment budget framework, there is still room for market value flexibility and we maintain a BUY rating.

Major risks facing rating industry decline; manufacturing boom surpasses expectations

Yunda shares (002120): 2018 net profit increased by 62.83% cost advantage is increasingly prominent

Yunda shares (002120): 2018 net profit increased by 62.83% cost advantage is increasingly prominent
The company released the 2018 performance report: the company achieved revenue of 138 in 2018.28 ppm, an increase of 38 in ten years.48%; operating profit 35.64 ppm, an increase of 63 in ten years.85%; total profit 34.9.4 billion, an annual increase of 62.83%; net profit attributable to mother 26.60 ppm, an increase of 67 in ten years.34%. The market share in 2018 increased by 2pcts to 13.77%, the average volume growth rate exceeds the industry average. According to the company’s monthly operating data statistics: In 2018, Yunda completed 69 express delivery volume.8.5 billion pieces, an increase of 48.74%, higher than 26 for the entire industry.6% market share from 11 in 2017.78% increased to 13.77%; Express single ticket income1.73 yuan, down 11 before.64%; Express delivery income 120 at the beginning of the year.5.2 billion, an annual increase of 31.43%, higher than 21 in the industry.81%. Costs are well controlled, and the net profit after deducting non-attribution is expected to increase by 35.7% of the companies sold Fengchao in 2018 and obtained a one-time after-tax income of about 4.400 million pixels increased thick net profit, and the income was entered in the table in 18Q3.Assuming that the non-recurring profit and loss of 2018Q1-3 is excluded from the previous net profit of the parent, the company’s net profit in 2018 increased by 35 compared with the net profit of non-homing in 2017.65%, slightly lower than the revenue growth rate of 38.48%, reflecting that the company still maintains continuous cost control advantages. 18Q4 volume increased by 1 compared with the previous month.47 pieces, the price drop was narrower than the previous month.79pcts 2018Q4 single season, Yunda achieved revenue of 45.800,000 yuan, an increase of 45.56%; Express delivery volume 22.2.2 billion pieces, an increase of 46.86%, single ticket income 1.80 yuan, down 8 per year.56%, net profit attributable to mother 6.7.9 billion yuan, an increase of 64.twenty four%.Looking at the trend, Yunda’s Q4 unit price decline was narrower than Q3.79 cases, and the business growth rate increased by 1.47pcts. Investment suggestion: leading in the industry in terms of volume and profit growth, cost control advantages are expected to continue to expand. The company’s express delivery volume growth rate is leading its peers, and the scale effect is expanding the network moat. At the same time, the company’s cost management level is excellent. Against the background of increasing industry price competition,The company’s profit growth rate remained high.We are optimistic about the company’s outstanding advantages in cost control. It is expected that the company’s express delivery volume growth rate will be 49% / 36% / 30% in 2018-2020 (actual value in 2018), and revenue growth rates will be 39% / 26% /25%, comprehensive cost expenses are expected, the company’s 2018-2020 net profit 佛山桑拿网 will be 26.68/25.62/29.26 trillion, annual change +67.9% /-4.0% / + 14.2%, corresponding EPS is 1.56/1.50/1.71 yuan.Corresponding to the current market price, PE is 23 respectively.31x, 24.27x, 21.26 times.Considering that excluding the impact of non-recurring gains and losses, the company’s net profit growth rate in 2019 is still only over 20%. Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, we believe that the company’s reasonable PE in 2019 is 25 times and the corresponding reasonable value is 37.5 yuan.Give “overweight” rating. Risk warning: price wars intensify; labor, transportation costs increase; industry growth is slower than expected

Westone (002268): Released Orange News Secure Instant Messaging China Netcom was formally established

Westone (002268): Released Orange News Secure Instant Messaging China Netcom was formally established

Event: Revenue for the first three quarters of 10.

430,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

13%, net profit attributable to mother-6360.

420,000 yuan, a year of loss reduction of 13.

42%, deducting non-net profit -6620.

740,000 yuan, 11 years to reduce losses.


Key investment results remained stable, Q3 deducted non-high growth: Q3 achieved quarterly revenue4.

32 ppm, -2 in one year.

71%, net profit attributable to mothers is 18.87 million yuan, a decrease of 4 per year.

54%, deducting non-net profit of 18.72 million yuan, an increase of 1927 for the year.

79%, mainly because the company’s sales receivables increased from the same period of the previous year, and the ageing of the repayment subdivision, correspondingly offset the increase in credit impairment losses.

In terms of expense ratio, sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased by 1 in the first three quarters.

62 points, 1.

13pct, R & D expense rate is reduced by 0 every year.

90 marks.

The gross profit margin in the first three quarters has increased by 1.

40pct, while development expenditure increased by 59 compared to the beginning of the year.

31%, mainly due to the increase in R & D expenditure that met the capitalization conditions during the reporting period.

China Netcom was established to build a state-owned state-owned enterprise network security defense line: On October 19, China Netcom was formally established. It was jointly created by China Electronics and China Energy Convergence, China Telecom, and China Unicom. It is currently the only professional in ChinaState-owned and state-owned enterprises’ network information security technology is a central enterprise that serves the reform of state-owned enterprises and promotes the development and expansion of traditional network security enterprises.

China Netcom mainly locates state-owned and state-owned enterprises for online supervision and security, and innovations in the system and mechanism of conventional internet companies. By establishing strategic cooperation and resource integration between telecom central enterprises, security central enterprises, and resource central enterprises, the use of state-owned enterprise network security big data resources to build a national networkThe main entrance of state-owned enterprises for major projects and national cybersecurity information sharing platform.

As a listing platform of China Cyber Security, a subsidiary of China Electronics Technology Corporation, Westone is mainly engaged in providing overall security services for central enterprises. It is expected to launch the establishment of China-funded Internet Credit, which will strengthen the construction of state-owned state-owned enterprises’ cyber security defense lines and accelerate the acceleration of the company.Landing of security operation and maintenance business.

Cut into the IM security track and release Orange News Security Instant Messaging: On October 20, Westone released the “Orange News Security Instant Messaging and Mobile Office Solution” at the China Telecom Wuzhen Scientific and Technological Achievements Conference.

The mobile data security of government and corporate officials involves national cyberspace security. If it is illegally obtained and duplicated, it will threaten national security.

In this release, Orange News released by Safestone is a secure and trusted software that is targeted at government and enterprise users and has both social applications and mobile office requirements.

Relying on years of accumulation in domestic business secrets and network security fields, based on the “User +, Security +, Mobile +, Application +, Service +” scheme, Orange News provides an integrated information security protection system for party and government users on the cloud management side.It solves the data security problems of its mobile Internet such as “abuse, misuse, and misappropriation”, and realizes effective management and control of sensitive data of mobile phone APPs for government and corporate official users, ensuring data standardization and harmless use.

At present, Orange News has been included in the Central 天津夜网 Discipline Inspection Commission, Cyberspace Office, Sichuan Provincial Government Office, Chengdu Municipal Party Committee, China Electronics Technology Corporation, CITIC Group, China Railway Construction and other government and enterprise units, successfully serving many major events and action guarantees.

Profit forecast and investment grade: Net profit is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.



310,000 yuan, EPS is 0.



63 yuan, corresponding to 164/70/45 times PE.

The state-owned enterprise network An Yunwei entered the stage of landing. Next year, the volume of domestic alternatives will enter the period of performance release and maintain the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The information security market is lower than expected, and the construction of secure cloud platforms is lower than expected.

Huaneng Hydropower (600025): Yunnan Northwest DC Transmission and Distribution Price Officially Landed and Company Performance Continues to Improve

Huaneng Hydropower (600025): Yunnan Northwest DC Transmission and Distribution Price Officially Landed and Company Performance Continues to Improve

Event: On April 2, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Approving the Transmission Price of Northwest Yunnan Special Projects to Guangdong”, which states that the transmission price of Northwest Yunnan HVDC project is per kilowatt-hour.

2 points (including tax and excluding line loss), the transmission price of supporting AC projects in Yunnan Province is 1 per kWh.

50 points; line loss rate of Northwest Yunnan DC project 4.

5%, supporting exchange projects in Yunnan Province do not count line loss.

  Opinion: The Northwest Yunnan HVDC transmission exchange price has officially landed, and the price is gradually predicted. The 800KV HVDC transmission line from Northwest Yunnan to Shenzhen has been officially put into production in May 2018. It is a supporting delivery line for the generator set in the Yunnan section of the upper reaches of the Lancang River.The third UHV DC project in operation has a total length of 1954 kilometers, a rated voltage of ± 800 kV, a transmission capacity of 5 million kilowatts, and a total investment of 18.9 billion US dollars.

According to the previous forecast, according to the financial internal rate of return of 8% of the capital, the transmission cost from Yunnan to the upper reaches of the Lancang River to Guangdong was calculated to be zero.

148 yuan / degree. At present, the Development and Reform Commission has approved that the total transmission and distribution prices in northwestern Yunnan and Yunnan province are zero.

107 yuan / degree, 0 lower than the transmission and distribution prices previously predicted.

031 yuan / degree.

  The on-grid electricity price of the Lanshang unit was determined as soon as possible. After the supplementary unit can increase the company’s performance, the transmission and distribution price of the northwestern Yunnan to Shenzhen landed.

Taking into account the line loss of DC engineering4.

5%, assuming that all line losses are borne by the power transmitting party.

45, 0.

44 or 0.

At 43 yuan / degree, the corresponding on-grid electricity prices of Lanshang units are 0.

323, 0.

313 and 0.

304 yuan / degree.

  The installed capacity of the Yunnan section of the upper reaches of the Lancang River is 5.63 million kilowatts. At present, 4.75 million kilowatts have been put into operation, and the remaining 880,000 kilowatts are expected to be put into full production in 19 years.

The annual designed power generation of Lanshang Yunnan section is 253.

7.9 billion kWh, designed to use hours of 4,508 hours, if the on-grid electricity price is higher than 0.

3 yuan / degree, it is expected to contribute more than 1.4 billion.

  The growth rate of hydropower generation in Yunnan from January to February reached 17.

2%, the company’s performance is expected to continue to improve in Yunnan Province from January to February, water is abundant, and hydropower generation capacity is 305.

1 billion degrees, a sharp increase of 17 previously.

2%, the company’s power generation is also expected to increase; in the province’s electricity price, in the first quarter of 2019, the province’s market-based trading 合肥夜网 electricity price was 0.

224 yuan / degree, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

004 yuan / degree.

In the first quarter of 2018, due to poor water supply, the company’s power generation decreased by 13 each year.

08%, 18-year performance is at a low point, and the rise in volume and price in the first quarter of 19 will help the company’s performance continue to improve.

  Profit forecast and forecast Maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 203 in 2019-2020.

4.9 billion and 211.

37 trillion, net profit attributable to mothers 38 trillion and 46 trillion, EPS is 0.

21 and 0.

26 yuan, corresponding to PE 20.

15 and 16.

47 times.
  Risk reminder: the risk of expanding power demand in Guangdong Province, the risk of incoming water exceeding expectations

Tielong Logistics (600125) Covers for the First Time-Special Box Returns Extend Long-term Profit of Shatuo

Tielong Logistics (600125) Covers for the First Time-Special Box Returns Extend Long-term Profit of Shatuo
This report reads: The pricing distortion of different types of goods in China’s railway freight transportation, and the decrease in the turnover rate of railway containers, have inhibited the long-term profitability of the special container business.Fortunately, the company’s early expansion of the Shaying line business provided support for profitability. Investment points: 1.Covered for the first time, rated “Neutral”.The passenger transport business of Tielong Logistics gradually withdrew and the Shalong Railway and special container business became core businesses.The Shaying Railway has a transformation with the bulk cargo transportation and is currently at a cyclical high.The profit of the special container business continued to increase, but was limited by the freight pricing policy and turnover rate, and its contribution to long-term shareholder returns was limited.The 2019-21 EPS is predicted to be 0.37/0.38/0.40 yuan, 15 times PE in 2019, 1.3 times the PB estimate, given a target price of 5.77 yuan, rated as “neutral”. 杭州夜生活网 2. The special container business has long been constrained by railway freight pricing policies and declining turnover.Compared with coal railway transportation, the demand for special container railway transportation is one-way, with exceptional exceptions, lower turnover rates, and higher freight rates to replace it.The railway container freight rate is not expected to reflect the difference in turnover rate.Restrictions on pricing and turnover make it difficult for the company to merge into the hard work of a given business and turn it into a higher shareholder return. 3. Shaying Railway has become a core business that contributes to shareholder returns and gradually provides profit support.The company acquired Yingkou Port’s only railway sparse port in 2005—14.The 17-km-long Shaying Railway has been expanded twice with a total 杭州桑拿网 investment of 5.400000000.In the past 14 years, it has obtained 5 times the return on investment.This business is affected by the cycle of macroeconomic and commodity demand, and its cyclical properties are significant. Currently, it has clearly echoed from the 2016 cycle trough. In 2019, this business will still benefit from the transit iron, but it will still be reflected in the long-term impact of commodities. 4. The scale of processing trade business is limited, and the core lies in risk control.With the implementation of the horizontal supply reform in 2016-17, the scale of the company’s processing trade business has expanded, and its gross profit has reached 17%.The profit margin of the trading business is low and it needs to be driven by working capital. The company’s annual report clearly states that it will control operating risks. It is expected that the business scale will maintain a low growth rate. 5. Risk factors.Demand for special containers was lower than expected; macroeconomic fluctuations; bad debts in trading business.

Nanshan Aluminum (600219) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: High-value-added capacity release at the turning point of industry profit

Nanshan Aluminum (600219) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: High-value-added capacity release at the turning point of industry profit

Nanshan Aluminum’s 2019 Q1 performance growth is in line with expectations. In 2019, the company’s high value-added capacity continues to be released. Indonesian projects are steadily advancing and gradually increasing the company’s profitability. Considering the impact of aluminum price operations and output changes 四川耍耍网 on the company’s profit, we adjusted the companyThe 2019-2020 return to mother’s net profit forecast is 16.


82 trillion (previous forecast 22).


4.9 billion), maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating.

The growth of the first quarter of 2019 was in line with expectations.

In Q1 2019, the company achieved revenue of 49.

10 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

56%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

54 ppm, with a ten-year average of 14.

70%, net profit after returning to mother 2.

0.6 million yuan, with a ten-year average of 23.


In general, the main factors affecting performance are: 1) the average price of aluminum ingots in the first quarter of 2019 was 13,504 yuan / ton, which gradually decreased4.

98%, the average price of alumina in the first quarter of 2019 was 2893 yuan / ton, surpassing the increase of 0.

94%, the decline in aluminum prices and rising costs affect the company’s gross profit margin; 2) Q1 2019 sales expenses1.

3.1 billion, an increase of 30% in the same period, mainly due to the increase in sales during the period; 3) Q1 2019 financial expenses1.

3.3 billion, an increase of 101 in ten years.

16%, mainly due to the increase in interest expenses during the period.

High-value-added capacity continues to be released.

1) Production capacity of 20 tons of supercritical large-size advanced special aluminum alloy material production line projects has been continuously released; 2) For automotive panels, continue to increase the number of customer certifications in the domestic and foreign automotive panel markets; 3) For aviation panels, simultaneously achieve batch supply in proportionAnd became a supplier of COMAC.

The completion of the rights issue helped the completion of the Indonesian alumina project.

In 2018, the company completed a rights issue and raised funds for Indonesia’s 100-micron alumina project45.

900 million. At present, the port construction and land leveling construction have been completed, and it is expected to reach the end of 2020.

In the future, the company will be able to make effective use of overseas-scale bauxite and coal resources to achieve alumina capacity expansion. In addition to meeting its own raw material needs, external sales will provide the company with new profitable growth.

Risk factors: the risk of raw material supply, the risk of aluminum price fluctuations, the pricing policy and the risk of exchange rates.

Investment suggestion: Terminal consumption continues to improve, the aluminum price center rises, the profit inflection point of the electrolytic aluminum industry appears in the second quarter, and the estimated level of the sector is expected to be further repaired.

Adjusting the company’s 2019-2020 net profit attributable to mothers to 16 in the light of aluminum prices, changes in the company’s aluminum processing output, and changes in the company’s equity.


8.2 billion (previous forecast was 22.


4.9 billion), and increase EPS forecast in 202124.

20,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.



20 yuan; the company currently estimates that the level of PB is below the 5-year average range, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Zoomlion (000157): The post-cycle varieties continued to increase their 19-year net profit to 42.

8 billion

Zoomlion (000157): The post-cycle varieties continued to increase their 19-year net profit to 42.

8 billion

Q3 The prosperity 杭州桑拿 of construction machinery continues, and after 20 years of judgment, the cycle change is high, and the growth of tower cranes and concrete machinery will continue to grow rapidly. The scale effect is significant, financing costs are optimized, and the company’s profitability is greatly improved.

Investment Highlights: Conclusion: 19Q1?

For Q3 revenue, the profit attributable to the parent was 31.8 billion and 34 respectively.

8 billion, an increase of 51%, 167%, deducting 27.

700 million, an increase of 189%; of which Q3 revenue was attributed to the mother’s profit of 94.

900 million, 9.

0 billion, an increase of 50.

3%, 106%, deduction of 6.

500 million, an increase of 111%, in line with expectations.

Based on the higher-than-expected growth in the post-cycle variety of construction machinery, the increase in 2019?
21 years EPS to 0.

54 (+0.

03) / 0.

66 (+0.

09) / 0.

69 (+0.

09) yuan and maintain target price of 6.

86 yuan, increased holdings.

The boom of construction machinery continued, and the variety of the post-cycle was highly certain.

① Tower crane: The growth rate of newly started real estate is high, especially for the demand for prefabricated buildings. From January to September, the company’s tower crane sales more than doubled and increased, the proportion of large tonnage increased, and the revenue growth rate was higher.

② Engineering cranes: The automotive crane industry grew by more than 30% from January to September, and the expansion of Zoomlion has been greatly increased. The sales volume is expected to increase by more than 50%. The crawler crane is expected to Q1?
Q3 doubled.

③Concrete machinery: Q1?
Q3 overall revenue growth is expected to exceed 30%, of which Q3 pump truck industry is expected to grow 30?
40% (19H1 is 70?
80%), the company expects to exceed 40% (19H1 exceeds 80%).

According to demand (volume and structure), renewal, environmental protection and other factors, it is judged that tower cranes continue to grow at a high rate, concrete machinery is growing faster, and construction cranes have a high degree of certainty.

Significant economies of scale, optimized financing costs, and significantly improved profitability.

19Q1?Gross profit margin for Q3 was 29.

8%, an increase of 3 per year.

5 points, total sales, management rates.

3%, a decrease of 1.

9pct, a significant scale effect; Q3 interest-bearing debt (including notes) at the end of Q3 was 43.9 billion, a month-on-month increase, but the financing cost was reduced after the bond issue in July, and Q3 expenses4.

400 million, a decrease from the previous quarter.

Multiple factors work together, Q1?Q3 deducted non-profit margin 8.

7%, an increase of 4 per year.


Catalysts: Risk warning of heavy-duty aerial platforms: sales of construction machinery fell sharply, and agricultural machinery shortened and intensified

Yongxing Materials (002756) Company Review: Discussion on the linkage mechanism of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide

Yongxing Materials (002756) Company Review: Discussion on the linkage mechanism of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide

Lithium salt prices initially rebounded: Last week, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1%, and subsequently the price of lithium carbonate also increased slightly.

Of course, the rise in prices at this time was catalyzed by accidental factors. Under the background that the demand side was not greatly restrained, domestic 北京夜网 lithium hydroxide manufacturers were affected by the epidemic and their normal production and transportation were disturbed. This year, the lithium hydroxide market is particularly high-endThe field is already tight, so it is reasonable to adjust the ex-factory price.

At present, the market is generally more optimistic about lithium hydroxide, and lithium carbonate is expected to be cautious. After that, we will explore the logic of its price linkage.

Lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate linkage mechanism: Although the applications of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in the battery segment are different, the historical prices of each other remain consistent in the general trend.

The maximum upstream raw materials between the two are the same. After the demand of any party changes to the upstream, the cost of the other party will be affected, and the price will be linked.

At the same time, in production, there are not many technical difficulties in the conversion of lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, and the conversion cost is about 1 million, so it is difficult to allow an excessively large spread.

Of course, lithium hydroxide has higher requirements on the specifications of the raw materials, and because high-nickel ternary materials are mostly connected with giants of overseas auto companies, the biological certification and certification cycle of its product certification are significantly harsher than lithium carbonate, which has improved one of them.Directly transformed door biology in production.

Backward history of lithium hydroxide premium: Due to the close relationship between the two processes and demand, the historical price changes of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate are generally consistent, but slight differences in the structure of supply and demand still cause their price volatility to deviate in stages.

We reviewed the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate since 2016. The premium discount between the two can be clearly divided into four stages: lithium hydroxide premium (lithium hydroxide-lithium carbonate> 0): Including two phases, one is from June 2016 to October 2017. At that time, the supplementary policy obviously had a new energy vehicle with a higher energy density, which became an important driving force for driving high-nickel ternary materials.At the time of rapid expansion of lithium carbonate production, the supply of lithium hydroxide has been limited, and the price difference between the two has maintained a high level. Second, since June 2018, although demand is still strong, the rapid release of the production side has resulted in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.Prices fell simultaneously, lithium hydroxide benefited from higher supply barriers, the price fell more slowly, and the premium reappeared; lithium hydroxide discounts (lithium hydroxide-lithium carbonate <0): also divided into two phases, one is in 2016Before this month, electric buses have started to steadily increase the demand for lithium carbonate, but at this time the application of lithium hydroxide in the battery field is limited, and the difference in demand has caused a premium for lithium carbonate; the second is from November 2017 to 201In May of this year, during this period, the internal material plant began to expand production and expand the supply chain of the industrial chain. The demand for lithium carbonate increased, but at the same time, the lithium hydroxide production capacity of Yabao, Tianqi, Ganfeng and other companies began to be rapidly put into operation.Among them, the price of goods cracked, and lithium carbonate appeared premium. The supply and demand particle size of high-end lithium hydroxide is the best: We have seen that although the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate has changed in history, it is difficult to maintain its high premium for a long time due to the restriction of process conversion capabilities. From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a serious excess of lithium hydroxide. According to the global 20-throughput calculation, the industry's operating rate is only around 50% at this stage, but major downstream and downstream manufacturers have stricter product quality and consistency requirements.There are still high barriers to harsh, high-quality battery-grade lithium hydroxide. In this high-end market, the current supply is mainly concentrated in the hands of manufacturers such as Ganfeng, Tianqi, Livent and Albemarle, and the overall production capacity is at level 8 (Yahua Group 1 this year. 5There is also the possibility of entering the electrostatic capacity). With the expansion of high-nickel micro-materials manufacturers, it is expected that the demand for high-end lithium hydroxide will reach a level of more than 6 inches this year. Although the industry as a whole is in excess, the supply and demand balance will begin to appear in some areas, and the high-end market price will be the firstUsher in a rebound. At present, the lithium hydroxide premium is around 8,000 yuan, which is still lower than the conversion cost of lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide products. Therefore, the company will not have too many conversion activities. However, considering the substitution at the raw material side, if the price of lithium hydroxide continues to riseLithium carbonate is also expected to follow suit. The bottom of lithium carbonate has existed, but it has not yet reached the lead-up stage: Due to the decline in prices over the past two years, the West Australian mines at the raw material side have started to reduce production on a large scale, and the space for raw material costs and smelting processing fees to continue to be compressed has been limited. The favorable factors of the primary industry are the situation of capacity growth and the recovery of demand growth, and the degree of surplus has obviously contracted significantly. The short-term pressure is due to the destocking of the upper and middle stocks. After the stock pressure is digested, lithium carbonate is the leading condition. Yongxing's lithium carbonate business is steadily sailing: As a new entrant to the new energy industry chain, Yongxing Materials has initially been included in the graded lithium carbonate production capacity, of which the designed capacity of 5000 tons of line 1 has entered continuous production, and line 2 hasIt is in an orderly and undisturbed trial production. Although the company uses lithium mica technology to extract lithium, which is relatively small in the ore lithium extraction market, we continue to be optimistic about Yongxing's competitiveness in the lithium carbonate field. After large-scale transformation, through the realization of the entire industrial chain layout of resources, mining, beneficiation and lithium carbonate deep processing, Yongxing has become the potential of industry-scale capacity; gradually realized, Yongxing relies on a flexible and efficient management system at the high-end of stainless steel rods and wiresThe market has reached the national leading level, and the three cost control capabilities are excellent. The excellent corporate culture gene is bound to introduce the successful development of the lithium salt business. We recommend that we focus on the business progress of Yongxing Materials and confirm the industry logic.Will bring the company's expected standard of repair momentum; risk warning: the output of new energy vehicles exceeds expectations; the growth of lithium carbonate supply is too fast; Yongxing lithium battery business expansion is not smooth.

TCL Group (000100): 3Q19 net profit exceeds expected OLED customer cut-in and restructuring volume still needs to be observed

TCL Group (000100): 3Q19 net profit exceeds expected OLED customer cut-in and restructuring volume still needs to be observed

TCL Group’s 3Q19 net profit was lower than expected.

4 ‰, 49 years ago.

4%; gross profit margin continues to decrease by 1.

2ppts to 7.

9%, reflecting the downward pressure on the unit price of the panel industry, but the company effectively controlled the material cost of the product through the strategy of dating suppliers, and the decline in gross profit margin improved; the net profit attributable to mothers reached 500 million, which fell by 46%, which was less than ours.Expectations, mainly due to falling unit prices, expected profit margins exceed our expectations.

In the future, the depreciation of the company’s T1 and T2 production lines will gradually decrease. We expect that the company’s depreciation expenses will be reduced by 1 / 1.2 billion in 2019/20, which can further improve profitability.

We believe that the company’s short-term performance should remain under pressure, while the penetration of new product OLED panel customers and the amount of restructuring still need to be observed, maintaining a neutral industry rating and target price.

00 yuan.

Development trend The 南京桑拿网 relationship between supply and demand of large-size panels will gradually improve in 2020: the company believes that the price of large-size panels in 3Q19 has fallen to the bottom and is expected to continue to maintain stability in the fourth quarter.

On the supply side, the company believes that the increase in supply capacity on the supply side will be limited in 2020, mainly for the 11th generation lines of Huaxing Optoelectronics and BOE, and at the same time, new capacity will enter less after 2021, which will result in higher investment costs for the current 11th generation line(Approximately 45 billion U.S. dollars), and by that time, the manufacturer’s production line depreciation has been completed, which will pose huge cost pressure on the new production line.

At the same time, the company said that since July, the effect of Korean manufacturers’ conversion will gradually improve, and it is expected to further ease the surplus surplus; on the demand side, the company is optimistic 1) The use of 4K and 8K signal broadcasting in the Tokyo Olympics will boost demand for oversized panels, and2) Huawei and other manufacturers entering the television industry are expected to bring animal networking related applications up.

The LTPS production line is fully loaded, and the amount of new OLED customers entering and restructuring still needs to be observed: At present, the capacity of the T3 production line has been increased from 45K / month to 50K / month, and the LTPS product market ranks second in the world.

In terms of OLED, the company said that the production capacity of the T4 production line is expected to climb. It is expected that it will be officially mass-produced in the fourth quarter.

In terms of customer introduction, the company has approached major Android brand customers and submitted samples for verification, and it is currently progressing smoothly, but we believe that as a late entrant in the OLED field, the company needs to continue to track the yield of the new production line and the stability of the product.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We slightly raised our revenue for 2019/20 by 3% / 4% to US $ 729.516 billion, mainly because Hanlinhui and other businesses exceeded expectations.

However, we lowered the net profit for 2019/20 by 29% / 32% to 31/41 trillion, mainly due to 1) a significant reduction in gross profit margin for 2019/20 2) a substantial reduction in the company’s non-operating income.

The company’s current consensus corresponds to 1 in 2019.

With a 4x PBR, considering that the supply and demand in the 1H20 panel industry needs to be gradually improved, we maintain our neutral rating and target price of 4.

00 yuan unchanged, corresponding to 1 in 2020.

The 5x P / B ratio has 18% more room for growth than currently expected.

Risks The expansion of terminal TVs and smartphones does not meet demand, resulting in a gradual deterioration of the supply-demand relationship.