Ren Zeping’s advice on real estate tax-according to the country’s simultaneous implementation of local conditions

Ren Zeping’s Advice on Real Estate Tax: Simultaneous Implementation in China

Objectively evaluate the 20-year historical achievements of real estate, major achievements and institutional changes Source: Zeping Macroeconomics Hengda Research Institute

The housing reform in 1998 released the power of the real marketization of real estate, created brilliant achievements in urbanization of human scale, rapid economic growth, and improvement of people’s livelihood. It also buried high housing prices, and land finance was waiting to be solved.

Real estate is related to national economy and people’s livelihood. It is the pillar industry of the national economy, the main source of local finance, the source of the financial crisis, the symbol of wealth, and the core of large-scale asset allocation.

  Twenty years of vicissitudes of history, great changes in history, standing at the starting point of the new era, and under the new positioning of “no housing and speculation”, how to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market through the reform of the housing system and the construction of long-term mechanisms, is of national concern.
We have proposed a number of widely adopted standard analysis frameworks: “Long-term real estate looks at population, medium-term land, and short-term finance” (see Real Estate Cycle, People’s Publishing House).

This article makes a major objective evaluation of the achievements and achievements of the real estate reform over the past two decades, the historical contribution of real estate, confronts the problems and difficulties encountered in the process of internal real estate development, analyzes the underlying causes and institutional reasons, and provides suggestions for a new round of reform.

  First, historical evaluation of the achievements of the housing system reform in the past 20 years. In 1998, in response to the impact of the Asian financial turmoil, the housing reform started the commercial housing market.

State Council Document No. 23 called for the cessation of physical distribution of housing, the gradual implementation of the monetization of housing distribution, and the establishment and improvement of a multi-level urban housing supply system with affordable housing as the main body.

The curtain of market-oriented development of China’s real estate in the past two decades has thus begun.

  (1) Since the real estate industry is becoming mature in the boom, housing reform has benefited from urbanization and economic growth, and residential housing demand has been released in a concentrated manner.

From 1998 to 2018, China’s urbanization rate increased from 33.

4% rose to 59.

6%, an average annual increase of 1.

3 percentage points, housing demand increased rapidly; urban per capita disposable income increased by 11% annually, and residents’ purchasing power increased significantly.

  China’s real estate benchmark has prospered over a 20-year long cycle, and industry indicators have grown significantly.

Over the past 20 years, the floor space of newly started housing has increased from 200 million yuan to 20.

900 million flats, a gradual increase of 9.

3 times, compound annual growth rate of 12.

4%.

Real estate development investment completed from 0.

20 trillion to 12 million trillion, a gradual increase of 55.

8 times, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.

4%.

The floor space and sales amount of commercial housing were changed from 1.

200 million increase to 17.

200 million flats, 0.

3 trillion yuan to 15 trillion yuan, a gradual increase of 13.

1,58.

7 times, compound annual growth rate of 14.

1%, 22.

7%.

  With the rapid development of the real estate industry, China’s real estate companies have grown from scratch, from state-owned enterprises to the rise of private enterprises.

In 2018, the number of real estate companies nationwide reached 9.

80,000, up from 2 in 1998.

40,000 increase 3.

Doubled, of which five real estate companies are among the top 500 in the world.

  The industry development model has gone from extensive to mature, and three trends have gradually emerged.

First, the industry concentration has gradually increased. The market share of the top 10, top 20 and top 50 housing companies in 2018 was 26 respectively.
9%, 37.
4%, 55.

1%, an increase of 17.7% over 2010
.

4,24.

7 and 39 digits.

Secondly, the products are constantly upgraded and improved, and higher requirements have been put on garden greening, building material quality, home design and intelligent technology, and the proportion of refined decoration of the merged leading housing enterprises has exceeded 50%.

The third is the change in the supply structure. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to “accelerate the establishment of a multi-substance supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-purchase housing system to allow all people to live in a place.”Developers and other parties participate together to form a multi-channel supply model of commercial housing, rental housing, secure housing, and joint ownership.

  (2) Construction of the housing system In the course of exploration, the internal housing system will be gradually improved and gradual and steady reform measures will be taken.

In the early stage of the pilot project, the foundation of 98 housing reconstruction and expansion, and the follow-up of supporting policies, eventually formed a housing system with Chinese characteristics featuring housing finance, land, substitution, housing security, and housing supply as the five pillars in line with internal national conditions.

  First, the housing finance system is dominated by commercial loans and supplemented by provident fund loans.

1994 “Decision of the State Council on Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System”, the establishment of the housing provident fund system; 1998 “Notice of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction”, requiring all commercial banks to place personal housing loans in all urban housing,Commercial housing finance is advancing rapidly.

  Second, the main land supply system is linked to the auction.

The “Regulations on the Transfer of Urban Land Use Rights” of 1990 stipulated that in accordance with the principle of separation of ownership and use rights, agreements, tenders and auctions were adopted to grant urban land use rights.

In 2002, the Ministry of Land and Resources announced Decree No. 11 that clarified that land for business use must be auctioned and sold.

In 2010, Beijing piloted the land transfer method of “price limit, bid for land”. In 2011, the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Relevant Issues in Further Changing the Real Estate Market” proposed the promotion of the “price limit, bid for land” method to supply low and medium prices.For commercial residential land, scenic cities have begun to innovate land transfer methods, breaking the traditional model of bidding for the highest bid price.

  Third, the accumulation system of long-term ownership of homes is encouraged.

There are currently nine types of taxation for personally held and traded homes.

There are two types of compensation, property tax and land increase, which are levied according to the temporary regulations of 1986 and 1988, respectively, and are currently exempt from personal non-business housing.

The transaction totals 7 taxes, involving many types of taxes, and the tax rate is relatively high. However, it provides discounts for long-term holdings and family-only housing.

Among them, deed tax is levied in accordance with the 1997 Interim Regulations; supplementary and additional levies are levied in accordance with the 2016 “Notice on Comprehensively Launching the Pilot Reform of Levying Business Taxes”; Individuals are notified in accordance with the 1999 “Relevant Issues Concerning Personal Income Tax on Individuals Selling HousingLevy; stamp duty and land replacement are levied in accordance with the 2008 “Notice on Adjusting Accounting Policies for Real Estate Transaction Changes”.

  Fourthly, the housing security system covers public rental housing, affordable housing, shantytown reconstruction resettlement housing, and common property housing.

In 1998, the Housing Reform Document No. 23 proposed that “low-income families rent low-cost housing, low- and middle-income families buy affordable housing, and other high-income families buy leased commercial housing.” Low-rent housing and affordable housing are used to protect low- and middle-income income.Family live.

In 2010, the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Public Rental Housing” was issued, and public rental housing has become one of the ways of affordable housing, facing lower-middle income families.

In 2008, the central large-scale affordable housing project started the transformation of state-owned forest areas, reclamation areas and coal shantytowns. In 2010, the reconstruction of urban and state-owned industrial and mining shantytown areas was fully launched.Supplementary loans provided adequate cost and long-term stable funding support for large-scale shed reform and monetization resettlement nationwide.

Families with housing difficulties in shantytowns can improve their living conditions through two methods, namely, resettlement housing and monetized purchase of commercial housing.

In 2017, the Ministry of Housing and Development issued a document to support Beijing and Shanghai in conducting joint ownership housing trials, focusing on solving the “sandwich” housing problem.

Since then, a housing security supply system for different income groups has been established.

The rapid advancement of housing security legislation in 2019 will expand the design and basic institutional framework of national-scale housing security.

  Fifth, the housing supply system of both rent and purchase.

The leasing system has won awards since 2015.

In 2016, the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Development of the Housing Leasing Market”. The report of the 19th National Congress of 2017 stated that “Insist on houses being resettled, not for speculative positioning.Channel protection, rent-and-purchase housing system “, clarifying the main framework and objectives of the housing supply system.

The pilot policy started in 2017 and was actively promoted. In July, the “Notice on Rapid Development of the Housing Leasing Market in Large and Medium-sized Cities with Net Inflows of Population” was issued, and 12 cities including Guangzhou and Shenzhen were selected for implementation of the pilot.The “Housing Pilot Program” was released, and it will be clear that pilot projects will be launched in 13 cities including Beijing to use collective construction land to build leased housing; in 2019, 16 cities including Nanjing will be shortlisted for central government-supported housing rental pilots.

  Second, objectively evaluate the historical contribution of real estate in the past two decades. (1) Real estate is a locomotive that drives variable economic growth. State Council Document No. 23 in 1998 clearly stated that “Promote the housing industry to become a new economic growth point”. State Council Document No. 18 in 2003 furtherPosition real estate as a pillar industry.

For more than 20 years, real estate has been well deserved as a locomotive for long-term economic development.

First, the industry is large and directly contributes to economic growth. Second, the industry chain is long and there are many related industries. Real estate investment and consumption drive a large number of upstream and downstream industries.

Among them, real estate development investment drives the construction industry and upstream and downstream manufacturing industries such as cement, steel, non-ferrous metals, and excavators; real estate consumption directly drives housing-related home appliances, furniture, home textiles, and decoration manufacturing; it also significantly drives finance.Tertiary industries such as media services, internet, and property management.

In 2018, the value added of the real estate industry as a proportion of GDP was 6.

At 6%, the contribution of real estate to the upstream and downstream related industries’ value-added accounted for 9% of GDP.

2%, the total ratio of the two is as high as 15.

8%.  Land transfer fees and income income provided by real estate have strongly supported local governments in large-scale infrastructure construction, industrial 杭州桑拿 reductions and reductions in land prices, and helped Chinese manufacturers stand out from international competition in the past 20 years.Make exports an important carriage for economic development.

From 2012 to 2018, the increase in floor prices of industrial land in 300 cities nationwide increased by only 4%.

2%, and the average floor price of residential land transactions increased by 178.

6%.

From 1998 to 2018, the national highway and railway mileage were respectively 127.

90,000 kilometers, 6.

60,000 kilometers increased to 4.85 million kilometers, 13.

20,000 kilometers.

  Real estate is one of the most important currency creation media, promoting credit expansion and economic development.

First, the financial systems of developing countries are dominated by indirect financing, real estate assets are of high quality and stable value, and create the basic conditions for credit expansion as the most important collateral.

At the end of 2018, mortgage loans accounted for 42% of the loan balances of listed banks, of which the 4 largest state-owned banks accounted for 45%.

Of the listed banks’ mortgage assets with mortgage loans exceeding 10 trillion, real estate accounts for 76%.

4%.

Second, in the rapid industrialization and urbanization stage, large-scale real estate development and construction is the engine of economic development and urban construction.

Investment in real estate projects is high, and the size of individual units is large, requiring credit support.

Real estate development loans accounted for the balance of loans to financial institutions in 20189.

5%, which is equivalent to the total investment in fixed assets18.

6% investment in real estate development.

Third, in housing market-oriented countries, housing loans are an important means to support residents’ purchase of housing and improve living conditions. They are the main debt of the residential sector and an important asset investment of financial institutions.

Take the United States, Japan, and Germany as examples. In 2017, the proportion of residential housing loans to total debt was 67.

4%, 64.

5% and 72.

4%, accounting for 24% of the loan balance of financial institutions.

1%, 24.

5% and 39.

8%.

The balance of annual residential housing loans in 2018 accounted for 56 of total household debt.

4%, accounting for 18 of the loan surplus of financial institutions.

9%, all lower than expected.

  (2) Real estate is the main financial source for large-scale infrastructure construction by local governments. After the tax-sharing reform in 1994, the power of affairs sank and the financial power moved upward. Local government financial pressures increased.

Real estate raises stable fiscal revenue for local governments.

  Real estate-related income is an important income for local governments.

There are mainly 11 types of real estate-related taxes, including deed tax, land occupation, urban land use tax, cultivated land occupation tax and real estate tax.

With the rapid development of the real estate market, the scale of real estate-related scales has continued to expand.

Real estate industry contributed local tax in 2017 1.

3 trillion, 5 special real estate taxes in 2018 totaled 1.

8 trillion, accounting for 19% of local income at that level, 23 respectively.

7%.

  The land transfer fee is the most important extra-budgetary revenue of the local government, and it is also the local government’s fiscal revenue at the highest level of the single item.

Through real estate, local governments realise the future value of domestic land use rights in a market-oriented manner.In 1998, the scale of land transfer fees was 507.

700 million yuan, accounting for 10% of local fiscal revenue.

2%, the scale of land transfer fees increased to 6 in 2018.

5 trillion yuan, accounting for 66% of local fiscal revenue.

5%.

  Land mortgage loans are a key source of external financing for city governments.

The huge land appreciation bonus brought by the development of real estate has greatly increased the value of land assets of local governments and has become an important credit collateral.

Taking 84 cities monitored by the Ministry of Natural Resources as an example, the land financing surplus reached 11 at the end of 15 years.

3 trillion yuan.

  (3) Real estate is the engine of gradual and rapid urbanization. Since the reform and opening up, gradual urbanization has entered a period of rapid development.

From 1978 to 2018, the urban population was 1.

700 million people grew to 8.

300 million people, an increase of 3 in 40 years.

8 times; from 1981 to 2017, the area of urban built-up areas nationwide increased from 7,438 square kilometers to 56,225 square kilometers, an increase of 6.

6 times.

  Real estate provides start-up capital for urban development.

For cities that are still in their infancy and rapid expansion, in addition to providing government and public services such as education and medical care, sanitation and greening, and public security and fire protection, it is even more urgent to expand the construction of infrastructure facilities such as road traffic, water and electrical heating supplies, and urban pipe networks.Internal income is difficult to provide sufficient funding.

From 1999 to 2018, the total local public budget expenditure at the local level totaled 148.

5 trillion, while the general public budget revenue at the local level is only 82.

7 trillion yuan.

Land transfer income has become an important source of revenue for local governments to start urban construction. From 1999 to 2018, national land transfer income totaled 43 trillion U.S. dollars, covering 29% of general public budget expenditure at the local level.

  Real estate helps non-agricultural population live and work in cities and towns.

One is to provide sufficient employment and higher income levels for the surplus agricultural labor.

Total number of migrant workers in 2018 2.

900 million people, including 18 in the construction industry.

6%; the average monthly salary in the construction industry is 4,209 yuan, which is 13 higher than the overall level of migrant workers.

1%.

With the rapid development of labor-intensive subdivisions such as property management services, real estate agencies, and long-term rental apartments, real estate will undertake more employment transfers of surplus agricultural labor.

The second is to provide housing for a large number of new urban populations.

From 1998 to 2018, it experienced the largest and accelerated urbanization process in world history, and the urbanization rate increased by 1 every year.

Three averages, the average annual resident population in cities and towns increased by 20 million.

Real estate mobilizes social resources to build houses on a large scale through marketization, which completely solves the problem of urban housing replacement in the era of welfare housing, and also effectively meets the new housing demand generated by rapid urbanization.

In 1995, there was only 66 houses in urban areas nationwide.

800 million flats, which increased significantly to 27.6 billion flats in 2018.

  Real estate accelerates the process of urban development and raises the level of urban development.

The first is to improve the appearance of the city.

Preliminary real estate projects have injected diversity into the urban landscape.

The transformation of shantytowns and old cities has improved the function and appearance of the city, but the capital needs are large, the coordination is fragile and high, and the support of housing enterprises is needed.

The second is to improve the pressure of unified government planning and construction. After the land transfer, some of the Dublin housing enterprises except the roads are completed.

For the development of commercial real estate projects, it is often necessary to build related landscaping, school hospitals, community commerce and other related supporting facilities within the red line.The third is to promote the construction and development of new areas and accelerate urban expansion.

Government departments need to learn from the rich professional development and operation and maintenance experience of housing companies to build popular business districts, beautiful residential areas and industrial parks with standardized operations.

  (IV) Real estate is a strong guarantee to improve the quality of residential living and realize consumption upgrade. The housing reform is a supply-side reform, which has significantly improved the efficiency of housing supply, stimulated the people’s pursuit of living quality, and demonstrated a new lifestyle.

  Housing reform has effectively improved the housing conditions of residents.

First, the area of family housing has increased significantly.

The per capita housing construction area in cities and towns was 18 in 1998.

7 square meters increased to 39 square meters in 2018, an increase of 1.

Doubled, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.

8%.

Second, the proportion of buildings has increased while the proportion of bungalows has decreased.

From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of bungalow households nationwide was 63.

1% recovered 38.

7%, an average annual decline of 1.

6 averages.

Third, housing facilities have improved significantly.

From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of households with independent kitchens in urban households was 84.

7% rose to 92.

4%, an average annual increase of 0.

5 digits; the proportion of households with independent toilets is 42.

1% rose to 74.

2%, an average annual increase of 2.

1 average.

  Real estate has promoted multi-level upgrading of residential housing consumption.

The first is to upgrade the concept of buying a house.

Buy public housing before 1998 to solve the problem of “have a house”. At that time, the concept of consumers was that there was a house, and most public houses did not have mature and standardized housing.

After 1998, he bought commercial houses with residential quarters, realizing the demand for convenient residential services.

The property management industry has also developed from scratch.

Entering the 21st century to purchase quality homes, it places high demands on garden greening, building material quality, and integrated decoration, and pursues a life concept that transcends vision and realizes a “good house”.

The second is the upgrading of consumption regions.

The cities are upgraded from low-energy cities to high-energy cities, from small and medium-sized towns to core cities and metropolitan areas in the region; in the cities, old houses and old houses in new areas are upgraded.

The third is the upgrading of consumer brands.

The demand for house purchases has shifted from local small and medium-sized house enterprises lacking construction standards and service guarantees to standardized operation and well-equipped brand housing enterprises.

From 2009 to 2018, the market share of TOP3, TOP10 and TOP20 real estate companies was 3.

5%, 8.

1% and 11.

8% increased to 12.

6%, 26.

9% and 37.

4%.

With brand premium, hardcover delivery, smart home, high-quality properties and other advantages, quality homes are available for mainstream.Taking refined decoration as an example, it first appeared in Guangzhou, Shanghai and other cities at the end of the 1990s. Evergrande took the lead in opening a partial trend of fully furnished houses in 2005. In 2018, the penetration rate of fully decorated buildings nationwide increased to more than 23%, and in first-tier cities it increased to 56%.

  (5) Real estate is the main force for increasing residents ‘income, wealth and consumption. Real estate drives residents’ income growth, promotes residents ‘wealth appreciation, improves residents’ consumption ability, and boosts consumption confidence.

First, the real estate and upstream and downstream industry chains are long, attracting a large number of employed people and increasing residents’ income.

The number of employed persons in the real estate industry in 2017 was 444.

80,000 people, 2,643 employed in the construction industry.

20,000 people, a total of 7 people in urban employment.

3%.

Second, real estate is the ballast stone of national residents’ assets, and the development of the real estate market drives asset appreciation.

From 2000 to 2018, the total value of urban housing increased from 17 trillion to 261 trillion, and the per capita housing value increased from 3.

70,000 yuan to 31.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 14.

4 times and 7.

5 times.

  Real estate provides all guarantees for the continuous upgrading of residential consumption.

Clothing, food, shelter, and transportation are the basic living needs of residents, which are given priority in consumption.

In the past 20 years, through the rapid growth of urban residents’ income, the family Engel coefficient has increased from 44.

7 continued to drop to 27.

7.
Significant changes have taken place in the consumption structure of urban households. From 1985 to 2018, the proportion of expenditure on food and clothing was 75.

4% quickly dropped to 40.

9%, while the proportion used for housing and transportation communications from 6.

9% excellence increased to 37.

3%.

In order to further upgrade consumption, it is necessary to continuously improve the scale of the group living conditions.

The housing reform effectively activated the housing market. From 1978 to 2018, the ratio of urban residents to households changed from 0.

81 rose to 1.

09, a leap from universal dwellings to basic livability has been achieved, and most of the material foundation has been laid for consumption to continue to upgrade. In the future, expenditures for education, medical care, leisure and entertainment will further increase.

  With the promotion of fully furnished houses and well-developed residential quarters, the home environment has improved, and the driving force of real estate on downstream products such as building materials and home appliances and furniture has increased significantly.

From 1998 to 2018, the saleable area of commercial buildings was 1.

200 million flats increased to 17.

200 million flats, driving cement and steel sales by 6.

200 million tons to 32.

600 million tons of household refrigerators, washing machines, color TVs and air conditioners.

6.7 billion units increased to 5.

600 million units.

  Third, facing the problems and problems encountered in the development of real estate in developing countries for two decades, the internal housing system has been perfected, which has shaped the prosperity and development of the real estate market, but there are still some problems: 1. The scale of housing finance and the oversupply of moneyPushing housing prices forward and changing credit policies are not conducive to market stability.

2. In terms of land supply, the separation of people and land and the mismatch between supply and demand have led to high housing prices in the first and second tiers and high inventory in the third and fourth tiers.

3. In terms of levels, the emphasis is on construction transactions but not on ownership. After the era of stock houses is approaching, local government’s “land finance” is facing changes.

4. In terms of housing security, the supply is discontinuous, the entry biology is high, and the exit biology is low.

5. In terms of housing supply, the emphasis is on purchasing rather than leasing. The housing leasing system is incomplete and the market is immature.  (1) Finance: Currency oversupply will help increase house prices, and policy continuity needs to be strengthened.

China’s economic development and currency issuance have been out of sync in the past 20 years.

From 1998 to 2017, China ‘s nominal GDP increased 9-fold, and M2 increased from 10 trillion to 169 trillion, a 16-fold increase.

In 2017, China’s M2 / nominal GDP was 204%, higher than the United States, Japan, and Europe.

According to the equation of money quantity MV = PQ, if the growth rate of money supply continues to exceed the growth rate of nominal GDP, commodity prices will rise.

The real estate market has become an important currency reserve, helping to stabilize prices and stabilizing interest rates, but has also pushed up housing prices. For example, in 2009, 2012, and 2015, the “M2 growth rate-nominal GDP growth rate” and the increase in the price of newly-built commodity housesThe trend is consistent.

  Constant changes in credit policies are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations.

Financial stability, real estate stability.

China’s housing finance policy has been used as an alternative to a stable cycle, and the changes have continued. From 2003 to the present, the country has continued to use national financial restructuring for 12 times. The down payment ratio has changed between 20% and 60%.

3 times change.

Unstable housing credit policies are not conducive to market stability, and residents have excessive leverage when policies are relaxed.

The housing credit policy from 930 to 202 in 2014 continued to relax, including relaxing the qualification standards for loans, reducing the down payment ratio, lowering the benchmark lending rate and increasing interest rate discounts to stimulate home loans to buy houses.

Home loan disbursement / GDP from May 2014.

4% jumped to October 2016.

8%; residential sector leverage from 35 in 2014.

7% rose to 48 in 2017.

4%, which is already at a high level in the budget.

  (2) Land: Separation of people and land, separation of supply and demand, separation of supply and demand, mismatch of supply and demand, resulting in high housing prices in first-tier first-tier cities and some second-tier cities and high inventory in third-tier and fourth-tier cities

People follow the industry, and the population moves to higher-income core cities and large urban agglomerations.

However, for a long time, under the guidance of the urbanization thinking of “controlling the population of large cities and actively developing mixed small and medium cities”, gradually develop small and medium cities and control the size of large cities, especially megacities.

Taking the land supply situation of 25 typical cities in 2009-2017 as an example, the per capita new residential land construction area of the newly added permanent residents in the four first-tier cities is less than 20 square meters. The third and fourth-tier cities such as Weifang and Lianyungang have more than 190 square meters.Xiangtan, Xi’an, and Mianyang’s permanent population continued to supply land while negative growth.

The urbanization of land can not keep up with the urbanization of people. The population of first-tier cities and some attractions in second-tier cities has rapidly increased but the land supply is insufficient, which has pushed up housing prices, while the third- and fourth-tier cities have faster land supply than population growth, which has led to rising inventory.

  (3) Budget: Focusing on construction transactions but not maintaining ownership, it is difficult for the land finance to continue for a long time. The local finance is highly dependent on land transfer income and real estate-related income.

In 2017, of the local fiscal revenue, the proportion of land transfer revenue.

6%, the real estate correlation coefficient accounts for 14.

9%.

These incomes are concentrated in real estate development and construction. In 2017, real estate-related indicators changed in development and construction. The proportion of transactions and ownership transfers in local fiscal revenue was 8 respectively.

1%, 3.

8% and 3.

3%.

  The sustainability of local government fiscal revenue faces challenges in the era of stock houses.

With the progress of urbanization, the proportion of new house transactions is declining, and it is the general trend to enter the era of stock houses.

In 2013, the ratio of second-hand house / new house transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all exceeded 1, which were 1.

00, 1.

08 and 1.

54. Be the first to enter the existing housing market; the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in other hot cities has gradually increased.

In the long run, the era of reduced-scale housing construction is coming to an end, real estate acquisition, new construction starts to decrease, land transfer income and real estate development and construction scale growth rate decline are trends, local government land finance is difficult to maintain.

  (4) Housing security: Discontinued supply, discontinued supply of low-guaranteed housing with high entry and high exit.

China’s housing security started in 1995, was replaced by a central location in 1998, and became vacant in 2003. In 2007, it replaced the reconstruction of real estate. In 2008, it started large-scale construction for the purpose of supporting infrastructure. The social housing system assumed part of the replacement focus.The stable and mature housing security system needs to be improved.

  Entry intelligence is high, exit intelligence is low.For most affordable housing such as affordable housing, the application conditions require “having a local urban hukou”, “family income meets the income standards of low-income families as determined by the city and county people’s governments”, and non-registered households and income levels are excluded through household registration and income restrictions.Families within the specified range are excluded, and entry biology is higher.

However, on the exit mechanism, the affordable homeowner owns all the ownership after 5 years, “can be sold at market prices”, and “pays a certain percentage of the land price equivalent of the difference between ordinary commodity housing and affordable housing at the same time”, and exits.Relative intelligence of the door, home buyers can accept the exit benefits.

The “shared property house” promoted in Beijing and other places is a useful attempt to optimize the deficiencies in housing security. On the entry side, restrictions on household registration are lifted, and the exit side stipulates that the transfer target should be a holding agency or other families that meet the conditions for the purchase of shared housing.

  (V) Housing supply: The housing leasing market is still immature and the system is incomplete. Since 1998, the housing supply system has been dominated by sales, with sales over leases.

In 2015, the proportion of urban residents leasing was 21%. Among other things, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States leased 55%, 39%, 37%, and 36%, respectively.

The low leasing ratio is related to the fact that the real estate market is still in the incremental housing stage, and it is also related to the incomplete lease system.

The management of the leasing market is mainly based on the “Urban Real Estate Management Law” (1994) and “Commercial Housing Leasing Management Measures” (2010). There is no special law; there are multiple pain points in the alternative leasing market, including single, with an individual share of 83%.Attractions in cities are poor. For example, there is a 1/3 supply-demand gap in Beijing; different rights for hire purchase make it difficult for lessees to enjoy high-quality urban public resources.

  4. Suggestions: Promote the reform of the housing system and long-term mechanism, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Real estate is the mother of the cycle. The housing system is the most important tool in a country and the genetic code deeply rooted in the real estate market of a country.

There are causes and consequences, and certain policies and systems have certain real market operation results.

The current problems in the domestic real estate market are at least related to the basic housing system, to achieve the policy goal of “steady land prices, stable house prices, stable expectations”, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and fundamentally solve the housing system reform and long-term management.Perfect mechanism.

  (1) Continue to improve the housing market and security systems The housing system adheres to the positioning of “houses are used for living, not for speculation”, and the two systems of housing market and security are being improved to return to solving the housing problem of residents.

Market-oriented commodity housing is the mainstay, increasing the supply of various types of affordable housing, and forming a stepped housing supply structure that “high income depends on the market, middle income is supported, and low income can be guaranteed”.

In order to maintain stable house prices in the market system, the rapid growth of house prices requires flooding into the affordable housing system, and the government’s financial burden is too heavy; falling house prices will cause residents’ wealth to decrease, incomes, and market risks.

Continue to improve the housing security system with low-rent housing, public rental housing, affordable housing, shantytown transformation and resettlement housing, and common property ownership housing as the main body to reduce the number of creatures entering the door and increase the number of creatures exiting the door.

Among them, low-rent housing for families with low-income housing needs should be fully guaranteed to improve the housing conditions of lower-middle-income families; public rental housing eases the employment of newly hired homeless workers, stable employment of migrant workers in urban areas; affordable housing, and common property rightsPlacement-type security houses such as houses solve the housing problems of “sandwich floors”; resettlement houses such as sheds and houses allow the needy people in dilapidated houses in cities and towns to “go out and enter the building”.

  (2) Continue to promote the housing supply system of simultaneous rental and sale, vigorously develop the housing leasing market, and improve the housing leasing system based on market allocation and the government to provide basic guarantees.

First, cultivate a diversified market supply body, including the development of housing leasing enterprises, encourage real estate development enterprises to carry out housing leasing business, standardize housing leasing agencies, and support individual rental housing.

Second, increase efforts to encourage housing rental consumption.

Legislative protection of leases, simplifying the procedures for withdrawing provident funds to pay rents, encouraging financial institutions to provide personal housing lease financial services, enriching the public services enjoyed by non-household tenants after applying for a residence permit, strengthening the protection of the tenants’ legitimate rights and interests, and maintaining a stable market rent level, etc.
Third, continue to improve housing rental support policies.

Subsidies are given to individuals and enterprises for renting housing, financial institutions are encouraged to provide financing services to housing leasing enterprises under effective risk control substitution, support for housing leasing enterprises to conduct direct financing based on controllable risks, and local governments are encouraged to increase the savings in leased housing land through multiple channels.supply.

Fourth, strengthen industry supervision and regulate industry operations.

The federal local government manages the main responsibility of the rental housing market in the region, enhances the interests of intermediary practitioners, establishes industry operating standards, discloses the credit information of management agencies and personnel, restricts the blind expansion of institutions, establishes a business deposit system, and severely punishes management agency fraud.

  (3) Maintain the continuity and stability of monetary and financial policies. In the short term, real estate looks at finance. Excessive financialization of real estate is the source of risk, and financial stability is the fundamental solution.

From the international experience, if monetary and financial policies are stable, housing prices will be stable, and changes in monetary and financial policies will easily lead to bubbles.

The reason why Germany can create a miracle of long-term stability of house prices, a stable and neutral monetary policy and the housing financial system play an important role.

Japan’s two real estate bubbles and their changing monetary and financial policies are directly related.

  At present, it is necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, and to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing.

The first is to adhere to differentiated housing credit policies, to support the immediate needs and to improve the group’s home ownership, and to control investment-oriented home purchases; the second is to avoid the adjustment of housing financial policies too quickly and too quickly, resulting in changes in the market in the short term and the risk of risk;The financing of housing enterprises remained stable.

Reasonably support development investment needs and avoid tight financing to drive up development costs.

Normal business should be allowed to be carried out, restricting non-standard business should be carried out step by step, open the front door and close the back door, and do not engage in a one-size-fits-all approach.

At present, it is necessary to support merger and acquisition financing, and promote the leading small and medium-sized real estate enterprises with difficulty in operating and becoming the main force to resolve real estate non-performing assets and financial risks.

  (4) Linking man and land, balancing supply and demand, optimizing land supply. Real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. Population is demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.

Strengthen the supervision and statistics of the urban resident population and real estate inventory, and dynamically optimize the land supply and supply structure in different regions.

First, continue to reform and improve the “people-land linkage” policy.

At present, the “human-land link” is mainly linked to the transfer of agricultural population to the supply of construction land, and cannot resolve the contradiction between the influx of population in the focus cities and the tight supply of housing.

In the future, the relationship between the permanent population and the land supply should be gradually supplemented, the balance of inter-provincial arable land occupation and compensation should be linked to the increase and decrease of urban and rural land, and increase the supply of urban construction land.

Second, strictly implement the policy of “dealing inventory cycle and linking with land supply”.

Cities with tight real estate inventory and pressure on house prices will moderately increase construction land supply indicators, and cities with real estate inventory backlogs and housing prices with reduced risk will reduce construction land supply indicators.

Third, optimize the structure of urban industrial land, residential land and commercial land.Priority is given to housing, as well as land for education, medical care, pensions, employment and other people’s livelihood and urban infrastructure construction, and necessary industrial land should be reasonably arranged.

  (V) Steady progress in real estate tax reform The fundamental purpose of real estate tax reform is to create a stable source of tax for the locality, improve the local tax system, and promote the successful transformation of “land finance” after completing the urbanization stage mission.

The reform of real estate tax is to combine property tax and urban land use tax into one, and gradually levy real estate tax on individual housing.

In terms of rhythm, legislation takes precedence, and the National People’s Congress forms a law through reorganization. When it is implemented, it fully authorizes local governments to advance step by step.

  In the short term, the real estate tax will significantly affect the expectations of buying a house and impact the real estate and land markets.

In terms of implementation scope, do not advance nationwide simultaneously. You can select cities with mature conditions to conduct pilot projects first, then summarize experiences and gradually promote them.

Giving local governments more autonomy, from the main urban area to high-rises, from new houses to stock houses, from the per capita exemption of area and tax rate, etc., different cities should set different standards according to local conditions.

  Real estate tax, as a property tax and a direct tax, should be fully considered in the introduction of plans for residents, and low- and middle-income families and special-purpose houses should be provided with appropriate alternatives.

  (6) Improve the long-term management mechanism of real estate Based on summing up the experience and lessons of previous adjustment policies, implement and improve the long-term management mechanism of real estate steadily to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

  The first is to rationalize the effective short-term temporary upgrade to institutionalization, and establish a package of long-term management mechanisms such as finance, land, finance and taxation, housing security, and market management.

For example, in the first- and second-tier cities where a large number of people have flowed in, the supply of shared property and leased housing has been increased; innovative land transfer models such as “price limit, bid for land, and bid for construction” have gradually replaced the traditional model of the higher bidder, breaking through land prices and pushing up house prices.The cycle of house prices pulling up land prices; revitalizing collective land to promote the dynamic balance of land supply and demand; adhering to the decentralized credit policy, strictly preventing illegal purchases of houses by increasing leverage, and keeping residents’ leverage stable and falling.

  The second is to moderately modify untimely supplementary policies, such as sales restrictions, price restrictions, and visa restrictions.

These policies are an emergency measure during the period of active real estate speculation and irrational growth of house prices. The current market has cooled down, and policies have been revised.

Restricting sales and restricting independent transactions of property rights affects the owner’s capital turnover and self-occupied house purchases; artificially distort prices to restrict prices, leading to the upside down of second-hand housing prices for new homes; restricting signings to dam the lake for online signing, and distorted house price statistics.

  Third, the long-term real estate mechanism focuses on “management”, rather than unilaterally tightening and changing policies; there are policies to maintain and pressure, loose and tight, adhere to the policy of one city and one policy.

It helps local government budget decision-making power and a richer toolbox to assume local responsibilities. The central government has achieved the policy goal of “stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations” by improving the market’s monitoring, forecasting, and evaluation mechanisms.

Noon review: the index surged back down and the Shanghai index fell 0.

39% of the agricultural sector performed strongly

Noon review: the index surged back down and the Shanghai index fell 0.

39% of the agricultural sector performed strongly

News from Sina Finance News on February 10, the index fluctuated in the early morning, then the stock index continued to strengthen, the Shanghai index turned red during the session, 杭州夜网论坛 the index rose more than 1%.

On the disk, the virus deposits began to differentiate, and the capital fled in advance. Tesla’s cement concept continued to strengthen, and the market’s profit-making effect was poor.

The three major stock indexes are about to close in the morning, and the individual stocks in the sector are clearly differentiated. A large number of high-end stocks in the concept of masks and disinfectants in the early stage have fallen, and the concept of securities firms and semiconductors has plunged.

Looking at the disk, the agricultural, cement, and non-ferrous sectors are relatively strong.

In general, the fried plate rate is slightly higher, and the market’s profit-making effect is still poor.

The final release, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 2864.

63 points, down 0.

39%, Shencheng Index reported 10588.

32 points, down 0.

22%; The Pioneer Index 2009.

95 points, down 0.

29%.

  From the perspective of the disk, the agricultural planting, pork, and cement sectors are at the top of the list.
Masks, disinfectants, and cloud office sectors were among the top decliners.

  Hot sectors: 1, cement Fujian Fujian Cement, Sichuan Jinding, Shangfeng Cement (right protection), Qilianshan, Sichuan Shuangma, Huaxin Cement, Jidong Cement and other stocks continued to perform strongly.

  News: BOC International believes that the short-term cement plate is relatively less affected by the pneumonia epidemic, and the recommended configuration is: in the medium and long term, there must be certain improvements in the separation of building materials. Among them, the certainty of the improvement in the performance of consumer building materials and fiberglass is higher, and the glass boomGradually reached the top, cement is expected to decline slightly.

  2. Agriculture Dabei Nong, Wanxiang Denong, Denghai Seed Industry, Dunhuang Seed Industry, Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Jinjian Rice Industry, and Tsuen Yin Hi-Tech followed the rise.

  News: On the afternoon of February 5th, the “Central Document No. 1” was released, entitled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Doing a Good Job in the” Three Rural “Areas to Ensure a Comprehensively Well-off Society as Expected”.

This is the 17th consecutive year of “Central Document No. 1” since 2004.

  News: 1. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI has increased by 5 over the years.

4%, an increase of 0 over the previous month.

9 averages.

The previous increase has been affected not only by the factors affecting the Spring Festival and the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, but also by the year when the Chinese New Year was staggered from the previous year, and the factor in which the comparison base was reduced last year.2 According to the Xinhua News Agency, WHO has led the establishment of a new international group of coronavirus experts and sent them toChina.

A team of pioneers led by Dr. Bruce Aylward, the leader of the expert group, arrived in Beijing on the evening of February 10, Beijing time.

This international expert group will include international experts in various fields.

International experts will work with their Chinese counterparts to increase understanding of the epidemic and guide global responses.

  3. Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, Best, Debang Express and other companies stated that the courier service network starting on the 10th has gradually resumed normal and started effective measures to ensure epidemic prevention and control and production recovery.

Yuantong has resumed normal operations on January 28.

China Post, SF, JD Logistics, Suning Logistics have been operating normally.

By the middle of this month, the express delivery industry will return to more than 40% of normal production capacity.

  4. In order to promote the development of entrepreneurship for homecoming, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the People’s Bank of China, the Securities and Futures Commission and other 19 departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Promoting the Development of Homecoming and Returning to Hometown”.

Nineteen departments jointly issued a document to promote the development of the scale of returning home and starting a business, and will actively use the methods of listing and issuing bonds to broaden financing channels.

  5. It is learned from the State Post Office that by February 8, postal companies and courier companies will transport and deliver 10552 tons of epidemic prevention and control materials, 47.51 million parcels will be shipped, 3331 vehicles will be shipped, and 120 cargo flights will be effectively relieved.The situation has played an important supporting role in fighting the epidemic.

  6. Zhu Qinhao, director of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Civil Affairs, introduced at the Shanghai epidemic prevention and control conference. At present, the whole city1.

Most of the 30,000 residential residential districts have achieved “closed management” and adopted entrance and exit management measures, such as: strictly controlling the number of entrances and exits in the districts, and strengthening the strength of gatekeepers, so that personnel must be checked, registered, and tested.temperature.

If the body temperature is abnormal, it shall be reported in a timely manner in accordance with the established “full chain disposal mechanism” and transferred in time.
  Market View: Jufeng Investment Gu believes that the slash window caused by irrational killings has been closed, and the market will return to calm after continuous upward attacks.
This week, the stimulus policy will be gradually implemented, and the market is expected to run smoothly.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on tracking 5G and Tesla’s industrial chain; in the short term, you can pay attention to the blue chip bottom-up opportunities.

The large-scale ups and downs of the environmental protection sector at the end of Friday may be a clear indication.

Zhonghuan shares (002129) important event comment: set to increase the speed of semiconductor wafer leader smooth expansion

Zhonghuan shares (002129) important event comment: set to increase the speed of semiconductor wafer leader smooth expansion

Matters: Central Shares issued the “Preliminary Plan for the Non-public Issuance of A Shares in 2019 (Revised Draft)”, and the “Implementation of Listed Companies’ Non-public Issuance of Stocks” revised on February 14, 2020, the “Decision on Amendments”According to the relevant provisions of the “Outline”, the board of directors of the company revised the issuance time, the number of objects to be issued, the issue price and pricing principles, and the sale restriction period arrangement in the preliminary plan for the non-public issuance of A shares.

The preliminary plan for the non-public issuance of A shares (revised draft) has been approved by the 34th meeting of the fifth board of directors of the company.

Comment: The revised draft of the fixed increase plan has come to the ground, and the expansion of semiconductor wafer production is on the string.

The company’s board of directors has revised the issuance time, the number of objects to be issued, the issue price and pricing principles, and the sale restriction period arrangement in the preliminary plan for the non-public issuance of A shares. All the issued shares are issued in a non-public manner to specific objects.The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the issuance in accordance with relevant regulations within 12 months. The scope of non-public issuance is no more than 35 specific investors. The pricing benchmark date is the first day of the issue period. The issue price is not less than 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date.80% of the average price of stock transactions; the number of shares in this non-public offering does not exceed 20% of the total share capital of the company before this non-public offering, that is, no more than 557,031,294 shares (including the number of shares), and the scale of funds to be raised does not exceed RMB500,000.

1 million yuan; the non-public offering of shares subscribed by the issuer shall not be transferred within 6 months from the end of the issuance.

The fundraising budget is expected to spend 45 trillion U.S. dollars on the 8-12-inch semiconductor silicon wafer production line project for integrated circuits and 500 million U.S. dollars to supplement working capital.

Expansion of semiconductor wafer capacity is expected to open up new growth space.

The company seized the opportunity to fully recover the downstream prosperity and industrial transfer, speeded up the semiconductor wafer business layout, and raised funds for the use of integrated circuits.
The 12-inch semiconductor wafer production line project, if the additional issuance is successfully implemented, will help the company’s semiconductor wafer production capacity expansion to proceed smoothly. Yixing ‘s 8-inch and 12-inch semiconductor wafer production capacity will reach 750,000 wafers / month and 150,000 wafers /By combining 300,000 wafers / month 8-inch silicon wafer production capacity and 20,000 wafers / month 12-inch test line production capacity in Tianjin, the company is expected to form 1.05 million wafers / month 8-inch silicon wafer production capacity and 170,000 wafers by 2021.The 12-inch wafer capacity per month has gained an absolute leading edge in the domestic semiconductor wafer field.

The 8-inch silicon wafer entered the heavy volume period, and the 12-inch silicon wafer was successfully verified.

The acceleration of the development of new energy vehicles & the start of the 5G cycle have brought about a great prosperity cycle for semiconductors and sensors, and the 8-inch production capacity is tight. Overseas manufacturers are cautious about the expansion of 8-inch silicon wafers, creating a rare opportunity for domestic 8-inch silicon wafers.Period of localization.

Zhonghuan’s 8-inch wafers have mature and stable supply capacity. Yixing’s 8-inch production line was also partially put into production last September. It is expected that the design capacity will be reached by 2021. By then, the company’s 8-inch wafer demand is expected to directly benefit from the downstream 杭州桑拿 boom.The high flexibility brought by the company; gradually, the company’s 12-inch silicon wafer production line is actively under construction, downstream customer certification is steadily progressing, it is expected to start volume in the third quarter of this year, is expected to become the core force of large-size silicon wafer import substitutes, the company’s semiconductor businessThe development potential will initially be released.

Earnings forecast, estimation and investment rating: We maintain our expectation that the company will realize net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021.

38, 17.

75 and 24.

620,000 yuan, taking into account the change in share capital after the additional issue, for EPS 0.

41, 0.

53 and 0.

74 yuan (based on the company’s current sustainable calculation, it is expected that the actual number of non-public offerings will be separated from the upper limit, and the EPS here is for reference only), corresponding to PE 47, 36 and 26 times, due to the company’s photovoltaic and semiconductor wafer businessEPS, which is in a period of rapid growth and increased equity, is given a target price of 23 within 12 months.

57 yuan, corresponding to 32 times PE in 2021, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: fluctuations in downstream demand; fluctuations in photovoltaic and semiconductor wafer prices; customer certification advances less than expected

Jin Shiyuan (603369): Performance meets expectations Expected development battle in 2020

Jin Shiyuan (603369): Performance meets expectations Expected development battle in 2020

This report reads: The performance in 2019 is in line with expectations. In 2020, it will continue to focus on the systematization of core single products, dual driving of brands and channels, expand the new pattern of nationalization of accelerated development of brands outside the province, and strong growth momentum.

Investment Highlights: Maintain Overweight rating.

The brand + channel two-wheel drive successfully completed its goals in 2019, and the achievements of single product construction and structural upgrading were prominent. The structure was optimized in 2020, the pace of expanding the country continued, and the momentum of high growth continued.

Maintain EPS 1 for 2019-2021.

16.1.

45, 1.

86 yuan, with reference to the average assessment of the industry to give 28XPE in 2020, raise the target price to 40.

5 yuan (previous value was 37.

7 yuan).

The performance was in line with expectations and the goal was successfully achieved.

The company announced the 2019 annual results pre-announcement and expects to realize net profit attributable to mothers in 201913.

81?
14.

96 ‰, ten years + 20%?
30%, corresponding to a single quarter growth rate of -28% in 2019Q4?
66%; deduct non-net profit 13.

32?
14.

430,000 yuan a year + 20%?
30%, corresponding to the single quarter growth rate of -42% in 2019Q4?
67%.

The expected target has been completed in 2019, and the final net profit is expected to be close to the upper limit of the forecast value.

Based on strategic single products, optimize product structure and maintain high growth trend.

In 2019, the company’s revenue is expected to be + 30% ahead of schedule, corresponding to a quarterly growth 都市夜网 rate of about 29% in Q4. Among them, the growth rate of special A products exceeded 40%, which further increased the proportion.

In 2019, the company’s three major strategic brands accounted for more than 90%, and the effect of setting a large single product is prominent. It is expected that the price increase will be achieved in an orderly manner in 2020, the product matrix will be further systematically managed, and high-end potential energy will be promoted to maintain.Gold card bit.

To speed up the nationalization process, the brand + channel will be driven by two wheels.

In 2020, brand-first, channel-driven, closely linked to brand characteristics and consumption scenarios to strengthen channel construction, and gradually control the cancellation of cancellation of product promotion promotion, and introduce “price-control 都市夜网 profit sharing”.

The company’s total provincial share is expected to be 7%, and its development momentum is expected. Among them, key A-type markets are expected to achieve high growth of 65-70%. In 2020, intensive cultivation in the province and breakthroughs outside the province will work in concert to increase growth. It is worth looking forward to.
Risk factors: downside risks to the macro economy, increased industry competition, etc.

SF Holdings (002352): Net profit increased by 27% in 19 years, epidemic boosted online consumption and boosted demand for express delivery

SF Holdings (002352): Net profit increased by 27% in 19 years, epidemic boosted online consumption and boosted demand for express delivery
Net profit for the year 19 increased by 27%, and the epidemic boosted online consumption and increased demand for courier services. Event: The company disclosed its 19-year performance report: 2019 revenue of 1121.9.3 billion, an increase of 23 previously.37%, net profit attributable to mother 57.970,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.24%, performance is in line with expectations.By quarter, 4Q achieved revenue of 334.23 trillion, an increase of 30 in ten years.69%, net profit attributable to mother 14.86 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.78%, mainly due to the promotion of preferential e-commerce pieces or the unit price of at least 16% to 19 per year.77 yuan, coupled with peak season vehicles, increased labor costs, etc. have led to an improvement in gross profit.  At the same time, January business data was released: January revenue totaled 116.2.8 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.4%, of which the express delivery business revenue was 111.500 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.64%, business volume 5.6.6 billion pieces, an increase of 40 in ten years.45%, single ticket income temporarily reduced by 21.23% to 19.7 yuan, up 2 from the previous month.07%, budget, revenue from supply chain business4.7.8 billion.  4Q business volume grew faster than expected.The company cut into low-end e-commerce express in 19Q2. Since the introduction of special e-commerce parts, the business volume has continuously increased (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 7%, 11%, 30%, 49% respectively).In January 2020, the company first proposed that the Spring Festival should not be closed, and the business volume in January was 5.6.6 billion pieces, an increase of 40 in ten years.5%.Based on the estimated 4 billion express delivery services in January by the State Post Office, the company’s January business volume accounts for about 14 of the industry.15%, during the epidemic period, the company resumed work at a higher rate, the scope of distribution expanded, and the business volume growth rate remained high.At present, SF, JD.com, and China Post have basically resumed work, and the rate of return to other express delivery companies has reached 66.7%, the company’s 南京桑拿网 business volume is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the first quarter of 20 years.  4Q peak season business expansion caused increased costs.With the arrival of the 4Q e-commerce promotion season (double 11 / double 12), the express delivery industry has entered a peak season, and the company’s business volume growth rate exceeded expectations, especially the double 12 business growth rate reached 55%.It is required that the company’s temporary increase in capacity, transit sites, staffing, and operating costs increase, but the company’s business volume continues to grow, capacity is released, and scale effects are transferred. It is expected that operating costs will be well controlled in the future.  The epidemic spurred increased demand for express delivery, and the direct sales model was larger and more capable of resisting risks.During the epidemic, online consumption 上海夜网论坛 surged, driving demand for express delivery. As one of the three normal operating express delivery companies designated by the State Post Bureau, SF Express significantly increased its brand influence and replaced the direct delivery model of the company when the combined express delivery company could not fully resume work.With remote end-of-line control capabilities, diversified business layout capabilities, resource guarantee capabilities, and cost control capabilities, the company has the operational flexibility and anti-risk capabilities of its operations.In addition, during the epidemic, land transportation was blocked, and the advantage of the fleet was restored. The 58 cargo aircraft owned by the company significantly improved its transportation capacity, guaranteed the company’s increase in the growth rate of aging parts, and boosted profit growth.  Profit forecast: We expect the epidemic to drive online consumer demand. The company’s multi-level products and quality service quality are conducive to the increase in business volume and the enhancement of brand effects.At the same time, from 2/17 to the end of the epidemic prevention and control work, toll roads throughout the country are exempted from vehicle tolls. The company’s transportation costs have been saved and transformed. The state has introduced policies that courier companies are exempt from compensation and corporate insurance unit payments are reduced.The impact of delicate epidemics on enterprises.We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 67 in 20 and 21 respectively.800 million, 78.870,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, 16%, and EPS are 1.54 yuan 1.At 79 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 30 times and 26 times respectively, maintaining the investment recommendation.  Risk warning: business growth forecast, fierce price competition, new business development than expected, etc.

Qilian Mountain (600720): Gan Qing’s economic upswing concerns about underestimating leading investment opportunities

Qilian Mountain (600720): Gan Qing’s economic upswing concerns about underestimating leading investment opportunities
The 3Q19 results were slightly ahead of the previous notice. The company announced the 3Q19 results: operating income23.09 million yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.4%; net profit attributable to mother 5.500 million, a huge increase of 65 in ten years.8%, an improvement of 12 from the previous month.3%, a slight increase over the expected performance pre-increase, we think it may be affected by prices exceeding market expectations.Opinion: Strong demand and record high gross margin.1) Off-season is not off, Ganqing 3Q19 cement demand is strong: 7?In August, the output of Gansu and Qinghai cement increased by 17% and 8% at the same time, indicating strong downstream demand, driving the 3Q19 company’s cement sales to continue to grow; 2) Gross profit margin hit a new high since the fourth quarter of 2009: From the perspective of the Ganqing cement industry,The average price of 3Q19 cement improved month-on-month, and the company’s gross profit margin in 3Q19 improved 1ppt to 39.1%, an improvement of 3 per year.At 8 ppt, the gross profit margin in a single quarter has reached a new high since the fourth quarter of 2009; 3) The expense ratio continued to decline sequentially, and the company’s 3Q19 management expense ratio and financial expense ratio decreased by 1 respectively from the previous month.7ppt and 0.2ppt.4) The company’s other income and non-operating income multiples increased significantly by approximately 45 million yuan and 29.88 million yuan in 3Q19, respectively, mainly benefiting from the financial subsidy received during the current period for the resettlement of employees in “zombie 深圳桑拿网 enterprises”.Earned income, “three supply and one industry” transfer of fee subsidy funds, etc. The operating cash flow improved tangibly, and the company realized net cash.The company’s 3Q19 operating cash flow increased significantly in two years.9.3 billion to 9.8.8 billion yuan.At the end of the third quarter, benefiting from the company’s 2Q sequential increase in book capital, non-current debt due within one year decreased from 2Q, and the company’s net cash on hand has reached approximately 6.200000000. Development Trend The average price in 3Q19 increased without a decrease from the previous month, and there was still room for improvement in the fourth quarter.In the third quarter of 1919, the price of high-standard cement in Qinghai, which we tracked, rose instead of falling, improving by RMB 13 and RMB 12 成都桑拿网 respectively.Since October, Gansu’s cement shipments have been above 90%, and the Pingliang area is close to full production and sales, which is significantly better than the same period last year. Qinghai cement demand is stable.Under the support of better demand, the current Gansu and Qinghai cement prices are gradually raised by 25 yuan and 40 yuan earlier in the 3Q off-season lows.If the subsequent price trend is similar to the same period last year (high and stable), we expect the 4Q19 Ganqing regional cement supply to still improve month-on-month, and the average price of 4Q19 will gradually reach a significant increase, pushing the company’s 4Q19 performance beyond expectations. Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We have raised our 2019e / 20e EPS 17 due to the upward revision of the average cement price assumption and the 2020 sales volume assumption.7% / 38.8% to 1.56/1.65 yuan, corresponding to 6.6x / 6.2x2019e / 20e P / E.Maintain Outperform rating and raise target price by 30% to 13.18 yuan, corresponding to 8.5x / 8.0 2019e / 20e P / E and 29% upside. The risk infrastructure projects were lower than expected, and regional addition and replacement capacity exceeded expectations.

Yuyuan Stock (600655) Financial Report Review: M & A and Reorganization Accelerate Multi-industry Cooperative Development

Yuyuan Stock (600655) Financial Report Review: M & A and Reorganization Accelerate Multi-industry Cooperative Development
Investment Highlights: Event: Shanghai Yuyuan Tourism Mall Co., Ltd. released the “2018 Annual Report” and achieved revenue of 337 in 2018.77 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.20%; operating profit 46.32 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.79%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 30.21 ppm, a ten-year increase4.67%.Among them, Q4 achieved operating income of 139.35 ppm, a 291-year increase.73%; operating profit in the fourth quarter was 29.73 trillion, a decrease of 10 a year.04%; Q4 achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies17.310,000 yuan, an annual increase of 674.34%.The company’s performance was in line with expectations. Revenue from the main business of gold jewelry increased in ten years.66%, all types of businesses accelerated the acquisition of market competitiveness. The revenue of gold jewelry’s main business maintained a growth rate, which was higher than the performance of the jewelry industry above the zero limit of society.26 points.As of the end of 2018, the company’s gold jewelry offline stores reached 2,090.The jewellery industry has two brands, Lao Temple Gold and Yayi Jewelry. The company enhances and differentiates its brands, strengthens product differentiation, re-establishes brand and market positioning, and expands market coverage. Mergers, acquisitions, mergers, and mergers across all formats performed well.In 2018, the company made mergers and acquisitions in jewelry, catering, and tourism businesses, and successively acquired Belgium’s IGI, Songhelou, and Japan’s Hoshino Hotel.After the merger and reorganization, the company’s main business growth has been significantly driven.Among them, the main business of gold has completed the acquisition of 80% equity in IGI, which is of great significance to the company’s main jewellery market.Reconstruction, IGI is located in Belgium’s main global diamond trading venue, and has a unique advantage in global diamond consulting.At the same time, IGI has an important position in the Indian diamond cutting market, and the company strengthens its ability to control the source of the diamond cutting market.M & A and restructuring drove the company’s resort / catering / leasing revenue growth, and its 2018 revenue increased by 41 in ten years.3% / 15.41% / 11.96%. The company firmly develops the “1 + 1 + 1” model, and the happy fashion brand starts again. The company has many established brands.Scale, the company upgrades through product iterations and brand optimization.The products continue to develop product lines based on market demand. Among them, gold jewelry and pharmaceutical industry are based on the popular Wuyun culture and the market’s healthy health needs to produce new nourishing health products.At the same time, the company acquired the Fosun system and coordinated development of multiple formats.During the reporting period, the company completed the acquisition of 20 companies in the Fosun system. The entry of commercial real estate provided a physical platform for the company’s happy fashion strategy.Further 四川耍耍网 accelerate the process of “industrial operation + industrial investment”. Profit forecast and investment grade: We maintain the company’s performance expectations. It is expected that the company’s Yuyuan shares will achieve revenue of 42/430/525 billion yuan in 19/20/21, a growth rate of 24.4% / 2.38% / 22.0%, while achieving a net profit of 35.61/38.0/44.2.2 billion, a 10-year growth rate of 4.06% / 6.70% / 16.36%, earnings per share are 0.92/0.98/1.14, the corresponding PE is 10.68/10.01/8.6.Cover for the first time, giving a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: market competition is intensifying, and business collaboration is less than expected.

Hongdou (600400): Q1 gross profit margins increase menswear sales growth but gradually look forward to subsequent expansion of stores and smart retail reform

Hongdou (600400): Q1 gross profit margins increase menswear sales growth but gradually look forward to subsequent expansion of stores and smart retail reform
Event company 2019Q1 achieved operating income7.61 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.14%; net profit attributable to mother 0.51 ppm, a ten-year increase6.60%; net profit deducted from non-mother 0.42 trillion, a decrease of 8 a year.79%. Brief comment on the growth rate of Q1 revenue increased month-on-month, the growth of private label sales but may increase Q1 company revenue by 9 in 2019.14%, an increase of 0 compared to the previous quarter of 2018Q4.82 pct, the main 杭州夜生活网 men’s clothing business income increases by 8 every year.34% to 7.3.2 billion.The private brand Hodo Menswear opened 29 new franchise stores in a single season, closed 23 franchise stores and 4 directly operated stores, and opened a total of 2 to 1340 stores (including 1278 franchised stores and 62 directly operated stores).The brand’s single quarter total revenue increases by 6 per year.55% to 6.550,000 yuan, the growth rates of Q3 and Q4 2018 were +39.4%, +13.7%. In the second half of last year, due to weak consumption, the number of stores opened was less than expected. The net opening of stores in 19Q1 was replaced, and the overall recovery in clothing consumption was weak.Men’s OEM business income increased by 26.53% to 0.7.6 billion yuan, down by 7 in 2018.03%. By channel, 19Q1’s overall offline revenue was 6.09 million yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.0%, 18Q3, Q4 increased by 20 respectively.6%, 10.At 7%, growth is still relatively low.The increase mainly comes from the franchise part of the expansion store, and the franchise income increased by 10.39% to 4.63 ppm, direct sales revenue increased by ten years2.19% to 0.4.6 billion.How much did the number of stores increase at the end of 19Q1 (direct sales extension +12.7%, franchise extension +21.1%), but due to the impact of the consumer environment, store efficiency has been declining.Online income1.23 ‰, a slight increase of 1 every year.01%, 18Q3, Q4 online growth rate is +6.8%, -6.9%, continued by the high base and the overall advantages of online retail. The gross profit margin and the average expense ratio increased, and the inventory impairment provision increased by 19Q1 and the comprehensive gross profit margin 30.0%, a big increase of 5 a year.5 pct, Hodo menswear gross margin extended by 5.54 to 31.8%, gross profit margin of online sales increased sharply in ten years 6.67 pct to 29.68%, of which the direct operation, the expansion of the gross profit margin of franchise increased, mainly due to the company’s supply chain management capabilities and upstream bargaining power to improve the effective control of procurement costs. The expense ratio was 21 during 1Q1.8%, an increase of 4 per year.73 pct, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 pct, management + R & D expense ratio increased by 2.84 pct, mainly due to employee expenditures, amortization of smart projects, and increased spending on research and development.The financial expense ratio increased by zero.47 pct, mainly due to the increase in short-term borrowing interest.Asset impairment losses were 1409.60,000 yuan, only 5 in 18Q1.20,000 yuan, mainly due to the increase in sales of provisions for inventory price increase provisions.Therefore, although the gross profit margin has increased, the increase in the expense ratio + the increase in the provision for impairment has led to a period of deduction for non-performance.However, the increase in wealth management income also helped increase investment income by 94%.1% to 0.20 ppm, helping overall performance to continue to grow. 19Q1 end inventory amount2.370,000 yuan, a decrease of 13 from the end of 2018.1%, mainly due to the winter clothing sales digestion of inventory and the decline in book value after accrual of impairment, inventory turnover rate2.09, 2 of the earlier 18Q1.23 has declined, but the overall inventory turnover and scale are still relatively healthy.Accounts receivable turnover ratio 2.25, 4 of the earlier 18Q1.74 declined, mainly due to the extension of the franchise account period, which supports its expansion of stores.Net cash flow from operating activities in a single quarter-0.97 ppm, and net inflows increase by 12 per year.67%, mainly due to the increase in electronic bank acceptance margin payments. Investment suggestion: The company’s men’s clothing is facing a weakening of the clothing retail environment during the transformation and upgrading phase. The overall trend of 2018H2, the pace of store opening has slowed down, and the store opening in 19Q1 also exceeded expectations.At present, the stores have finally improved the direct management reform and switched to asset-light operation.The company cooperated with JD.com to develop smart retail, and established a strategic cooperation with Perception Group in 4 months. It cooperated in smart stores, smart storage, smart manufacturing model factories and other fields, and promoted the construction of smart red beans with innovative technologies such as the Internet of Things.Retail, the strategic prospects of new technologies for retail empowerment transformation and active reforms, coupled with the increasingly younger brand marketing, are optimistic about the future upgrade of the overall brand retail strength.With the gradual stabilization and recovery of retail sales in 3/4 months, the company is expected to achieve the previous low-to-high growth. It is also expected to form further synergy with other clothing-related businesses of the holding group in the future.We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2020 of 2.85 billion, 3.55 trillion, EPS is 0.11 yuan / share, 0.14 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 33, 27 times, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk factors: The macro environment affects men’s clothing consumption; inadequate inventory digestion during the off-season season brings sales pressure and affects gross profit margin; opening stores is less than expected.

Jidong Cement (000401): Weather Factors Cause Q3 to Exceed Expectations, and Mid-term High Prosperity Sustained

Jidong Cement (000401): Weather Factors Cause Q3 to Exceed Expectations, and Mid-term High Prosperity Sustained

Event 南宁桑拿 Overview The company released a three-quarter report on October 9th. The first three quarters are expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers.

3-24.

800 million, a 33-year increase in comparable caliber.

76% -36.

52%.

Weather caused Q3 sales to decline, but the net profit per ton remained stable.

The company achieved sales of cement clinker in the third quarter of 2,838, twice a decade.

2%, resulting in lower-than-expected results. We judge that the rain and weather conditions in August in Shaanxi and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in late September cooperated with the National Day celebration to limit production activities to some extent.

However, benefiting from the overall high prosperity of the northern cement industry, the company’s 2019Q3 ton net profit is still 55-60 yuan / ton, which is basically stable compared with Q2.

Acquired mangrove environmental protection and entered the environmental protection industry.

In October, the company announced the acquisition of 100% equity of Jinyu Mangrove Environmental Protection, and officially entered the environmental protection industry.

Considering that the gap in the supply of industrial waste disposal cannot be overcome, we believe that its high prosperity can still be maintained, and the environmental protection business is expected to become a new growth point for the company’s performance.

At the same time, if the company can replace co-processing with more of its own production lines, the company will also try to obtain more peak-shift exemptions.

North China Cement’s mid- to high-level boom is expected.

As the construction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shaanxi urban areas accelerates, we believe that infrastructure in North China will gradually recover and lead to a steady increase in cement demand. This translates into the majority of cities still requiring PM2 for the heating season 2 + 26 in 2019-2020.

5 Concentration improvement is improved by 3% -10%, which reflects the state’s efforts to replace the environmental protection supervision of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei instead of relaxation.

Therefore, we believe that the cement supply and demand pattern in North China in 19Q4 and China is expected to remain good, and the high prosperity can be sustained.

Investment Advice.

Based on a more cautious cement sales price forecast, we lower our 2019-2021 net profit forecast19.

6% / 6.

7% / 4.

6% to 30.

2/37.

9/40.

5 ten percent, an annual increase of 103.

6% / 25.

5% / 6.

9%.

Reduce target price by 1.

8% to 19.

RMB 67, based on 7x 2020E PE, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest weaker-than-expected infrastructure recovery and systemic risks.

Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): R & D pipeline steadily advances with Aier to strengthen ophthalmology

Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): R & D pipeline steadily advances with Aier to strengthen ophthalmology

Events: (1) The company recently released the 2019 third quarter report, reporting a series of total realized revenue6.

13 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

66%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

6.6 billion, down 13 each year.

06%; net profit of non-return to mother is 0.

61, down 13 each year.

54%.

(2) The company recently signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Aier Ophthalmology. The two parties intend to carry out in-depth cooperation in the fields of ophthalmology medical care, ophthalmology investment, ophthalmic drug research and development, and ophthalmic drug promotion.

Comments: 1.

The optimization of the marketing system has led to an increase in selling expenses.

The company’s 2019Q3 operating income increased by 11.

66%, net profit after deducting non-attributed mothers fell by 13.

54%.

The decrease in net profit after deducting non-return to mothers was mainly due to the increase in sales expenses brought about by the optimization of the marketing system (+0.

5.5 billion, +27.

35%).

The report summarizes that the company has increased the development, coverage and promotion of core diversity in primary hospitals and pharmacy terminals.

This increases selling expenses in the short term, but will have a positive impact on the company’s performance in the long term.

In addition, the reporting group company increased the investment in various R & D pipeline projects, and the R & D expenses also increased.

2.

Deeply cooperate with Aier Ophthalmology to strengthen the advantages in the ophthalmology field. Ophthalmology is the company’s traditional advantage field. It has the fist products Fufang Xueshuantong capsule, Mingmu Dihuang capsule and six eye drops.

On 杭州夜生活网 this basis, the company has actively deployed research and development of innovative ophthalmic drugs in recent years, and has launched a number of projects such as ZSYM011, atropine sulfate eye drops.

The establishment of in-depth cooperation with Aier Ophthalmology this time is conducive to concentrating high-quality resources on both sides and helping to make ophthalmic drugs bigger and stronger.

① The clinical resources assisted the company’s new drug research and development company to deploy multiple projects in the ophthalmology field, of which ZSYM011 is a supplementary cooperation project with WuXi AppTec in the first half of this year, and the indication is diabetic retinal macular edema (DME).

In addition, the company also deployed atropine sulfate eye drops to delay the progression of myopia in children. 杭州评茶阁 It is used to treat cyclosporine eyes in adults with severe keratoconjunctivitis over 4 years of age and adolescents with dry eye disease who are not treated with artificial tears.Use milk.

This cooperation will help the company leverage the drug efficacy evaluation and clinical development experience of Aier Ophthalmology, and rely on Aier Ophthalmology’s medical resources to promote the collaborative development of innovative ophthalmic drugs.

② More than 300 outlets support volume of products. According to the reported cooperation framework agreement, Aier Ophthalmology has incorporated the company’s ophthalmic products into the basic drug catalog of its hospital.

Aier Ophthalmology has more than 300 ophthalmic medical outlets, with 5.74 million outpatient visits in 2018.

This cooperation will provide strong market support for the academic promotion of the company’s products and patient education.

规模,这将为公司既有产品打开巨大增量空间;缩小,在爱尔眼科300家网点和公司自身强大的眼科销售团队的双线推广下,眼科创新药获批后将实现迅速放量 ③眼科The current layout of the medical service subsidiary or selling company in the field of ophthalmology includes Allied Ophthalmology, Xuancheng Eye Hospital and so on.

Aier Ophthalmology intends to purchase 100% equity of Zhanjiang Orient Optical Center Co., Ltd. and 80% equity of Xuancheng Ophthalmic Hospital Co., Ltd. by issuing shares and paying cash.

The acquisition is conducive to the company’s more professional development, and the company will also enter and merge into Aier Ophthalmology, further facilitating the in-depth cooperation between the two parties.

3.

The research and development of innovative drugs has been progressing steadily, and the company’s future growth can be expected. Since the start of new drug research and development cooperation with WuXi AppTec in 2015, the company has successively launched 12 innovative drug research and development projects.

In addition to ophthalmology, we have also focused on liver disease, respiratory diseases, and tumors.

While the cooperation projects have been continuously enriched, research and development progress has also been steadily advanced.

① One of the key pipeline varieties developed by the company-Influenza A drug ZSP1273 ZSP1273 is the first clinically approved influenza A virus RNA polymerase inhibitor in China.

Its target of action is novel, and existing clinical data show that anti-influenza virus activity significantly breaks through similar foreign clinical studies, and is expected to become the best drug in the field of influenza A.The project was conducted by Academician Zhong Nanshan as PI, and Phase II clinical trials have been launched in August 2019.

② The company’s second key pipeline of the company’s research and development-the new non-alcoholic minority hepatitis (NASH) drug ZSP1601. The drug has a novel target and is the first NASH drug approved in China. It has now entered the phase II clinical stage.

The prevalence of non-alcoholic rare liver (NAFLD) in the average adult in the country is about 25%, of which about 10%?
20% is NASH, but there are currently no approved NASH treatments worldwide.

In addition to ZSP1601, the company also tracks the layout of leading foreign phase III clinical trial targets.

The company’s NASH drug research and development leads the country and is expected to gain a first-mover advantage in this huge target market.

Profit forecast and investment grade: The company continues to increase R & D investment, actively seeks model breakthroughs, and is driven by R & D innovation, and future growth is expected.

The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

01, 28.

02 and 31.

4.0 billion, net profit attributable to mothers is expected to reach 4.
.

73, 5.

24 and 5.

720,000 yuan, EPS is 0 yuan.

58, 0.

64 and 0.

70 yuan, the current expected corresponding estimate is 17.

77, 16.

04 and 14.

71 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: risk of drug price reduction; risk of new drug development.