Ren Zeping’s Advice on Real Estate Tax: Simultaneous Implementation in China
Objectively evaluate the 20-year historical achievements of real estate, major achievements and institutional changes Source: Zeping Macroeconomics Hengda Research Institute
The housing reform in 1998 released the power of the real marketization of real estate, created brilliant achievements in urbanization of human scale, rapid economic growth, and improvement of people’s livelihood. It also buried high housing prices, and land finance was waiting to be solved.
Real estate is related to national economy and people’s livelihood. It is the pillar industry of the national economy, the main source of local finance, the source of the financial crisis, the symbol of wealth, and the core of large-scale asset allocation.
Twenty years of vicissitudes of history, great changes in history, standing at the starting point of the new era, and under the new positioning of “no housing and speculation”, how to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market through the reform of the housing system and the construction of long-term mechanisms, is of national concern.
We have proposed a number of widely adopted standard analysis frameworks: “Long-term real estate looks at population, medium-term land, and short-term finance” (see Real Estate Cycle, People’s Publishing House).
This article makes a major objective evaluation of the achievements and achievements of the real estate reform over the past two decades, the historical contribution of real estate, confronts the problems and difficulties encountered in the process of internal real estate development, analyzes the underlying causes and institutional reasons, and provides suggestions for a new round of reform.
First, historical evaluation of the achievements of the housing system reform in the past 20 years. In 1998, in response to the impact of the Asian financial turmoil, the housing reform started the commercial housing market.
State Council Document No. 23 called for the cessation of physical distribution of housing, the gradual implementation of the monetization of housing distribution, and the establishment and improvement of a multi-level urban housing supply system with affordable housing as the main body.
The curtain of market-oriented development of China’s real estate in the past two decades has thus begun.
(1) Since the real estate industry is becoming mature in the boom, housing reform has benefited from urbanization and economic growth, and residential housing demand has been released in a concentrated manner.
From 1998 to 2018, China’s urbanization rate increased from 33.
4% rose to 59.
6%, an average annual increase of 1.
3 percentage points, housing demand increased rapidly; urban per capita disposable income increased by 11% annually, and residents’ purchasing power increased significantly.
China’s real estate benchmark has prospered over a 20-year long cycle, and industry indicators have grown significantly.
Over the past 20 years, the floor space of newly started housing has increased from 200 million yuan to 20.
900 million flats, a gradual increase of 9.
3 times, compound annual growth rate of 12.
Real estate development investment completed from 0.
20 trillion to 12 million trillion, a gradual increase of 55.
8 times, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.
The floor space and sales amount of commercial housing were changed from 1.
200 million increase to 17.
200 million flats, 0.
3 trillion yuan to 15 trillion yuan, a gradual increase of 13.
7 times, compound annual growth rate of 14.
With the rapid development of the real estate industry, China’s real estate companies have grown from scratch, from state-owned enterprises to the rise of private enterprises.
In 2018, the number of real estate companies nationwide reached 9.
80,000, up from 2 in 1998.
40,000 increase 3.
Doubled, of which five real estate companies are among the top 500 in the world.
The industry development model has gone from extensive to mature, and three trends have gradually emerged.
First, the industry concentration has gradually increased. The market share of the top 10, top 20 and top 50 housing companies in 2018 was 26 respectively.
1%, an increase of 17.7% over 2010
7 and 39 digits.
Secondly, the products are constantly upgraded and improved, and higher requirements have been put on garden greening, building material quality, home design and intelligent technology, and the proportion of refined decoration of the merged leading housing enterprises has exceeded 50%.
The third is the change in the supply structure. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to “accelerate the establishment of a multi-substance supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-purchase housing system to allow all people to live in a place.”Developers and other parties participate together to form a multi-channel supply model of commercial housing, rental housing, secure housing, and joint ownership.
(2) Construction of the housing system In the course of exploration, the internal housing system will be gradually improved and gradual and steady reform measures will be taken.
In the early stage of the pilot project, the foundation of 98 housing reconstruction and expansion, and the follow-up of supporting policies, eventually formed a housing system with Chinese characteristics featuring housing finance, land, substitution, housing security, and housing supply as the five pillars in line with internal national conditions.
First, the housing finance system is dominated by commercial loans and supplemented by provident fund loans.
1994 “Decision of the State Council on Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System”, the establishment of the housing provident fund system; 1998 “Notice of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction”, requiring all commercial banks to place personal housing loans in all urban housing,Commercial housing finance is advancing rapidly.
Second, the main land supply system is linked to the auction.
The “Regulations on the Transfer of Urban Land Use Rights” of 1990 stipulated that in accordance with the principle of separation of ownership and use rights, agreements, tenders and auctions were adopted to grant urban land use rights.
In 2002, the Ministry of Land and Resources announced Decree No. 11 that clarified that land for business use must be auctioned and sold.
In 2010, Beijing piloted the land transfer method of “price limit, bid for land”. In 2011, the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Relevant Issues in Further Changing the Real Estate Market” proposed the promotion of the “price limit, bid for land” method to supply low and medium prices.For commercial residential land, scenic cities have begun to innovate land transfer methods, breaking the traditional model of bidding for the highest bid price.
Third, the accumulation system of long-term ownership of homes is encouraged.
There are currently nine types of taxation for personally held and traded homes.
There are two types of compensation, property tax and land increase, which are levied according to the temporary regulations of 1986 and 1988, respectively, and are currently exempt from personal non-business housing.
The transaction totals 7 taxes, involving many types of taxes, and the tax rate is relatively high. However, it provides discounts for long-term holdings and family-only housing.
Among them, deed tax is levied in accordance with the 1997 Interim Regulations; supplementary and additional levies are levied in accordance with the 2016 “Notice on Comprehensively Launching the Pilot Reform of Levying Business Taxes”; Individuals are notified in accordance with the 1999 “Relevant Issues Concerning Personal Income Tax on Individuals Selling HousingLevy; stamp duty and land replacement are levied in accordance with the 2008 “Notice on Adjusting Accounting Policies for Real Estate Transaction Changes”.
Fourthly, the housing security system covers public rental housing, affordable housing, shantytown reconstruction resettlement housing, and common property housing.
In 1998, the Housing Reform Document No. 23 proposed that “low-income families rent low-cost housing, low- and middle-income families buy affordable housing, and other high-income families buy leased commercial housing.” Low-rent housing and affordable housing are used to protect low- and middle-income income.Family live.
In 2010, the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Public Rental Housing” was issued, and public rental housing has become one of the ways of affordable housing, facing lower-middle income families.
In 2008, the central large-scale affordable housing project started the transformation of state-owned forest areas, reclamation areas and coal shantytowns. In 2010, the reconstruction of urban and state-owned industrial and mining shantytown areas was fully launched.Supplementary loans provided adequate cost and long-term stable funding support for large-scale shed reform and monetization resettlement nationwide.
Families with housing difficulties in shantytowns can improve their living conditions through two methods, namely, resettlement housing and monetized purchase of commercial housing.
In 2017, the Ministry of Housing and Development issued a document to support Beijing and Shanghai in conducting joint ownership housing trials, focusing on solving the “sandwich” housing problem.
Since then, a housing security supply system for different income groups has been established.
The rapid advancement of housing security legislation in 2019 will expand the design and basic institutional framework of national-scale housing security.
Fifth, the housing supply system of both rent and purchase.
The leasing system has won awards since 2015.
In 2016, the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Development of the Housing Leasing Market”. The report of the 19th National Congress of 2017 stated that “Insist on houses being resettled, not for speculative positioning.Channel protection, rent-and-purchase housing system “, clarifying the main framework and objectives of the housing supply system.
The pilot policy started in 2017 and was actively promoted. In July, the “Notice on Rapid Development of the Housing Leasing Market in Large and Medium-sized Cities with Net Inflows of Population” was issued, and 12 cities including Guangzhou and Shenzhen were selected for implementation of the pilot.The “Housing Pilot Program” was released, and it will be clear that pilot projects will be launched in 13 cities including Beijing to use collective construction land to build leased housing; in 2019, 16 cities including Nanjing will be shortlisted for central government-supported housing rental pilots.
Second, objectively evaluate the historical contribution of real estate in the past two decades. (1) Real estate is a locomotive that drives variable economic growth. State Council Document No. 23 in 1998 clearly stated that “Promote the housing industry to become a new economic growth point”. State Council Document No. 18 in 2003 furtherPosition real estate as a pillar industry.
For more than 20 years, real estate has been well deserved as a locomotive for long-term economic development.
First, the industry is large and directly contributes to economic growth. Second, the industry chain is long and there are many related industries. Real estate investment and consumption drive a large number of upstream and downstream industries.
Among them, real estate development investment drives the construction industry and upstream and downstream manufacturing industries such as cement, steel, non-ferrous metals, and excavators; real estate consumption directly drives housing-related home appliances, furniture, home textiles, and decoration manufacturing; it also significantly drives finance.Tertiary industries such as media services, internet, and property management.
In 2018, the value added of the real estate industry as a proportion of GDP was 6.
At 6%, the contribution of real estate to the upstream and downstream related industries’ value-added accounted for 9% of GDP.
2%, the total ratio of the two is as high as 15.
8%. Land transfer fees and income income provided by real estate have strongly supported local governments in large-scale infrastructure construction, industrial 杭州桑拿 reductions and reductions in land prices, and helped Chinese manufacturers stand out from international competition in the past 20 years.Make exports an important carriage for economic development.
From 2012 to 2018, the increase in floor prices of industrial land in 300 cities nationwide increased by only 4%.
2%, and the average floor price of residential land transactions increased by 178.
From 1998 to 2018, the national highway and railway mileage were respectively 127.
90,000 kilometers, 6.
60,000 kilometers increased to 4.85 million kilometers, 13.
Real estate is one of the most important currency creation media, promoting credit expansion and economic development.
First, the financial systems of developing countries are dominated by indirect financing, real estate assets are of high quality and stable value, and create the basic conditions for credit expansion as the most important collateral.
At the end of 2018, mortgage loans accounted for 42% of the loan balances of listed banks, of which the 4 largest state-owned banks accounted for 45%.
Of the listed banks’ mortgage assets with mortgage loans exceeding 10 trillion, real estate accounts for 76%.
Second, in the rapid industrialization and urbanization stage, large-scale real estate development and construction is the engine of economic development and urban construction.
Investment in real estate projects is high, and the size of individual units is large, requiring credit support.
Real estate development loans accounted for the balance of loans to financial institutions in 20189.
5%, which is equivalent to the total investment in fixed assets18.
6% investment in real estate development.
Third, in housing market-oriented countries, housing loans are an important means to support residents’ purchase of housing and improve living conditions. They are the main debt of the residential sector and an important asset investment of financial institutions.
Take the United States, Japan, and Germany as examples. In 2017, the proportion of residential housing loans to total debt was 67.
5% and 72.
4%, accounting for 24% of the loan balance of financial institutions.
5% and 39.
The balance of annual residential housing loans in 2018 accounted for 56 of total household debt.
4%, accounting for 18 of the loan surplus of financial institutions.
9%, all lower than expected.
(2) Real estate is the main financial source for large-scale infrastructure construction by local governments. After the tax-sharing reform in 1994, the power of affairs sank and the financial power moved upward. Local government financial pressures increased.
Real estate raises stable fiscal revenue for local governments.
Real estate-related income is an important income for local governments.
There are mainly 11 types of real estate-related taxes, including deed tax, land occupation, urban land use tax, cultivated land occupation tax and real estate tax.
With the rapid development of the real estate market, the scale of real estate-related scales has continued to expand.
Real estate industry contributed local tax in 2017 1.
3 trillion, 5 special real estate taxes in 2018 totaled 1.
8 trillion, accounting for 19% of local income at that level, 23 respectively.
The land transfer fee is the most important extra-budgetary revenue of the local government, and it is also the local government’s fiscal revenue at the highest level of the single item.
Through real estate, local governments realise the future value of domestic land use rights in a market-oriented manner.In 1998, the scale of land transfer fees was 507.
700 million yuan, accounting for 10% of local fiscal revenue.
2%, the scale of land transfer fees increased to 6 in 2018.
5 trillion yuan, accounting for 66% of local fiscal revenue.
Land mortgage loans are a key source of external financing for city governments.
The huge land appreciation bonus brought by the development of real estate has greatly increased the value of land assets of local governments and has become an important credit collateral.
Taking 84 cities monitored by the Ministry of Natural Resources as an example, the land financing surplus reached 11 at the end of 15 years.
3 trillion yuan.
(3) Real estate is the engine of gradual and rapid urbanization. Since the reform and opening up, gradual urbanization has entered a period of rapid development.
From 1978 to 2018, the urban population was 1.
700 million people grew to 8.
300 million people, an increase of 3 in 40 years.
8 times; from 1981 to 2017, the area of urban built-up areas nationwide increased from 7,438 square kilometers to 56,225 square kilometers, an increase of 6.
Real estate provides start-up capital for urban development.
For cities that are still in their infancy and rapid expansion, in addition to providing government and public services such as education and medical care, sanitation and greening, and public security and fire protection, it is even more urgent to expand the construction of infrastructure facilities such as road traffic, water and electrical heating supplies, and urban pipe networks.Internal income is difficult to provide sufficient funding.
From 1999 to 2018, the total local public budget expenditure at the local level totaled 148.
5 trillion, while the general public budget revenue at the local level is only 82.
7 trillion yuan.
Land transfer income has become an important source of revenue for local governments to start urban construction. From 1999 to 2018, national land transfer income totaled 43 trillion U.S. dollars, covering 29% of general public budget expenditure at the local level.
Real estate helps non-agricultural population live and work in cities and towns.
One is to provide sufficient employment and higher income levels for the surplus agricultural labor.
Total number of migrant workers in 2018 2.
900 million people, including 18 in the construction industry.
6%; the average monthly salary in the construction industry is 4,209 yuan, which is 13 higher than the overall level of migrant workers.
With the rapid development of labor-intensive subdivisions such as property management services, real estate agencies, and long-term rental apartments, real estate will undertake more employment transfers of surplus agricultural labor.
The second is to provide housing for a large number of new urban populations.
From 1998 to 2018, it experienced the largest and accelerated urbanization process in world history, and the urbanization rate increased by 1 every year.
Three averages, the average annual resident population in cities and towns increased by 20 million.
Real estate mobilizes social resources to build houses on a large scale through marketization, which completely solves the problem of urban housing replacement in the era of welfare housing, and also effectively meets the new housing demand generated by rapid urbanization.
In 1995, there was only 66 houses in urban areas nationwide.
800 million flats, which increased significantly to 27.6 billion flats in 2018.
Real estate accelerates the process of urban development and raises the level of urban development.
The first is to improve the appearance of the city.
Preliminary real estate projects have injected diversity into the urban landscape.
The transformation of shantytowns and old cities has improved the function and appearance of the city, but the capital needs are large, the coordination is fragile and high, and the support of housing enterprises is needed.
The second is to improve the pressure of unified government planning and construction. After the land transfer, some of the Dublin housing enterprises except the roads are completed.
For the development of commercial real estate projects, it is often necessary to build related landscaping, school hospitals, community commerce and other related supporting facilities within the red line.The third is to promote the construction and development of new areas and accelerate urban expansion.
Government departments need to learn from the rich professional development and operation and maintenance experience of housing companies to build popular business districts, beautiful residential areas and industrial parks with standardized operations.
(IV) Real estate is a strong guarantee to improve the quality of residential living and realize consumption upgrade. The housing reform is a supply-side reform, which has significantly improved the efficiency of housing supply, stimulated the people’s pursuit of living quality, and demonstrated a new lifestyle.
Housing reform has effectively improved the housing conditions of residents.
First, the area of family housing has increased significantly.
The per capita housing construction area in cities and towns was 18 in 1998.
7 square meters increased to 39 square meters in 2018, an increase of 1.
Doubled, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.
Second, the proportion of buildings has increased while the proportion of bungalows has decreased.
From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of bungalow households nationwide was 63.
1% recovered 38.
7%, an average annual decline of 1.
Third, housing facilities have improved significantly.
From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of households with independent kitchens in urban households was 84.
7% rose to 92.
4%, an average annual increase of 0.
5 digits; the proportion of households with independent toilets is 42.
1% rose to 74.
2%, an average annual increase of 2.
Real estate has promoted multi-level upgrading of residential housing consumption.
The first is to upgrade the concept of buying a house.
Buy public housing before 1998 to solve the problem of “have a house”. At that time, the concept of consumers was that there was a house, and most public houses did not have mature and standardized housing.
After 1998, he bought commercial houses with residential quarters, realizing the demand for convenient residential services.
The property management industry has also developed from scratch.
Entering the 21st century to purchase quality homes, it places high demands on garden greening, building material quality, and integrated decoration, and pursues a life concept that transcends vision and realizes a “good house”.
The second is the upgrading of consumption regions.
The cities are upgraded from low-energy cities to high-energy cities, from small and medium-sized towns to core cities and metropolitan areas in the region; in the cities, old houses and old houses in new areas are upgraded.
The third is the upgrading of consumer brands.
The demand for house purchases has shifted from local small and medium-sized house enterprises lacking construction standards and service guarantees to standardized operation and well-equipped brand housing enterprises.
From 2009 to 2018, the market share of TOP3, TOP10 and TOP20 real estate companies was 3.
1% and 11.
8% increased to 12.
9% and 37.
With brand premium, hardcover delivery, smart home, high-quality properties and other advantages, quality homes are available for mainstream.Taking refined decoration as an example, it first appeared in Guangzhou, Shanghai and other cities at the end of the 1990s. Evergrande took the lead in opening a partial trend of fully furnished houses in 2005. In 2018, the penetration rate of fully decorated buildings nationwide increased to more than 23%, and in first-tier cities it increased to 56%.
(5) Real estate is the main force for increasing residents ‘income, wealth and consumption. Real estate drives residents’ income growth, promotes residents ‘wealth appreciation, improves residents’ consumption ability, and boosts consumption confidence.
First, the real estate and upstream and downstream industry chains are long, attracting a large number of employed people and increasing residents’ income.
The number of employed persons in the real estate industry in 2017 was 444.
80,000 people, 2,643 employed in the construction industry.
20,000 people, a total of 7 people in urban employment.
Second, real estate is the ballast stone of national residents’ assets, and the development of the real estate market drives asset appreciation.
From 2000 to 2018, the total value of urban housing increased from 17 trillion to 261 trillion, and the per capita housing value increased from 3.
70,000 yuan to 31.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 14.
4 times and 7.
Real estate provides all guarantees for the continuous upgrading of residential consumption.
Clothing, food, shelter, and transportation are the basic living needs of residents, which are given priority in consumption.
In the past 20 years, through the rapid growth of urban residents’ income, the family Engel coefficient has increased from 44.
7 continued to drop to 27.
Significant changes have taken place in the consumption structure of urban households. From 1985 to 2018, the proportion of expenditure on food and clothing was 75.
4% quickly dropped to 40.
9%, while the proportion used for housing and transportation communications from 6.
9% excellence increased to 37.
In order to further upgrade consumption, it is necessary to continuously improve the scale of the group living conditions.
The housing reform effectively activated the housing market. From 1978 to 2018, the ratio of urban residents to households changed from 0.
81 rose to 1.
09, a leap from universal dwellings to basic livability has been achieved, and most of the material foundation has been laid for consumption to continue to upgrade. In the future, expenditures for education, medical care, leisure and entertainment will further increase.
With the promotion of fully furnished houses and well-developed residential quarters, the home environment has improved, and the driving force of real estate on downstream products such as building materials and home appliances and furniture has increased significantly.
From 1998 to 2018, the saleable area of commercial buildings was 1.
200 million flats increased to 17.
200 million flats, driving cement and steel sales by 6.
200 million tons to 32.
600 million tons of household refrigerators, washing machines, color TVs and air conditioners.
6.7 billion units increased to 5.
600 million units.
Third, facing the problems and problems encountered in the development of real estate in developing countries for two decades, the internal housing system has been perfected, which has shaped the prosperity and development of the real estate market, but there are still some problems: 1. The scale of housing finance and the oversupply of moneyPushing housing prices forward and changing credit policies are not conducive to market stability.
2. In terms of land supply, the separation of people and land and the mismatch between supply and demand have led to high housing prices in the first and second tiers and high inventory in the third and fourth tiers.
3. In terms of levels, the emphasis is on construction transactions but not on ownership. After the era of stock houses is approaching, local government’s “land finance” is facing changes.
4. In terms of housing security, the supply is discontinuous, the entry biology is high, and the exit biology is low.
5. In terms of housing supply, the emphasis is on purchasing rather than leasing. The housing leasing system is incomplete and the market is immature. (1) Finance: Currency oversupply will help increase house prices, and policy continuity needs to be strengthened.
China’s economic development and currency issuance have been out of sync in the past 20 years.
From 1998 to 2017, China ‘s nominal GDP increased 9-fold, and M2 increased from 10 trillion to 169 trillion, a 16-fold increase.
In 2017, China’s M2 / nominal GDP was 204%, higher than the United States, Japan, and Europe.
According to the equation of money quantity MV = PQ, if the growth rate of money supply continues to exceed the growth rate of nominal GDP, commodity prices will rise.
The real estate market has become an important currency reserve, helping to stabilize prices and stabilizing interest rates, but has also pushed up housing prices. For example, in 2009, 2012, and 2015, the “M2 growth rate-nominal GDP growth rate” and the increase in the price of newly-built commodity housesThe trend is consistent.
Constant changes in credit policies are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations.
Financial stability, real estate stability.
China’s housing finance policy has been used as an alternative to a stable cycle, and the changes have continued. From 2003 to the present, the country has continued to use national financial restructuring for 12 times. The down payment ratio has changed between 20% and 60%.
3 times change.
Unstable housing credit policies are not conducive to market stability, and residents have excessive leverage when policies are relaxed.
The housing credit policy from 930 to 202 in 2014 continued to relax, including relaxing the qualification standards for loans, reducing the down payment ratio, lowering the benchmark lending rate and increasing interest rate discounts to stimulate home loans to buy houses.
Home loan disbursement / GDP from May 2014.
4% jumped to October 2016.
8%; residential sector leverage from 35 in 2014.
7% rose to 48 in 2017.
4%, which is already at a high level in the budget.
(2) Land: Separation of people and land, separation of supply and demand, separation of supply and demand, mismatch of supply and demand, resulting in high housing prices in first-tier first-tier cities and some second-tier cities and high inventory in third-tier and fourth-tier cities
People follow the industry, and the population moves to higher-income core cities and large urban agglomerations.
However, for a long time, under the guidance of the urbanization thinking of “controlling the population of large cities and actively developing mixed small and medium cities”, gradually develop small and medium cities and control the size of large cities, especially megacities.
Taking the land supply situation of 25 typical cities in 2009-2017 as an example, the per capita new residential land construction area of the newly added permanent residents in the four first-tier cities is less than 20 square meters. The third and fourth-tier cities such as Weifang and Lianyungang have more than 190 square meters.Xiangtan, Xi’an, and Mianyang’s permanent population continued to supply land while negative growth.
The urbanization of land can not keep up with the urbanization of people. The population of first-tier cities and some attractions in second-tier cities has rapidly increased but the land supply is insufficient, which has pushed up housing prices, while the third- and fourth-tier cities have faster land supply than population growth, which has led to rising inventory.
(3) Budget: Focusing on construction transactions but not maintaining ownership, it is difficult for the land finance to continue for a long time. The local finance is highly dependent on land transfer income and real estate-related income.
In 2017, of the local fiscal revenue, the proportion of land transfer revenue.
6%, the real estate correlation coefficient accounts for 14.
These incomes are concentrated in real estate development and construction. In 2017, real estate-related indicators changed in development and construction. The proportion of transactions and ownership transfers in local fiscal revenue was 8 respectively.
8% and 3.
The sustainability of local government fiscal revenue faces challenges in the era of stock houses.
With the progress of urbanization, the proportion of new house transactions is declining, and it is the general trend to enter the era of stock houses.
In 2013, the ratio of second-hand house / new house transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all exceeded 1, which were 1.
08 and 1.
54. Be the first to enter the existing housing market; the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in other hot cities has gradually increased.
In the long run, the era of reduced-scale housing construction is coming to an end, real estate acquisition, new construction starts to decrease, land transfer income and real estate development and construction scale growth rate decline are trends, local government land finance is difficult to maintain.
(4) Housing security: Discontinued supply, discontinued supply of low-guaranteed housing with high entry and high exit.
China’s housing security started in 1995, was replaced by a central location in 1998, and became vacant in 2003. In 2007, it replaced the reconstruction of real estate. In 2008, it started large-scale construction for the purpose of supporting infrastructure. The social housing system assumed part of the replacement focus.The stable and mature housing security system needs to be improved.
Entry intelligence is high, exit intelligence is low.For most affordable housing such as affordable housing, the application conditions require “having a local urban hukou”, “family income meets the income standards of low-income families as determined by the city and county people’s governments”, and non-registered households and income levels are excluded through household registration and income restrictions.Families within the specified range are excluded, and entry biology is higher.
However, on the exit mechanism, the affordable homeowner owns all the ownership after 5 years, “can be sold at market prices”, and “pays a certain percentage of the land price equivalent of the difference between ordinary commodity housing and affordable housing at the same time”, and exits.Relative intelligence of the door, home buyers can accept the exit benefits.
The “shared property house” promoted in Beijing and other places is a useful attempt to optimize the deficiencies in housing security. On the entry side, restrictions on household registration are lifted, and the exit side stipulates that the transfer target should be a holding agency or other families that meet the conditions for the purchase of shared housing.
(V) Housing supply: The housing leasing market is still immature and the system is incomplete. Since 1998, the housing supply system has been dominated by sales, with sales over leases.
In 2015, the proportion of urban residents leasing was 21%. Among other things, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States leased 55%, 39%, 37%, and 36%, respectively.
The low leasing ratio is related to the fact that the real estate market is still in the incremental housing stage, and it is also related to the incomplete lease system.
The management of the leasing market is mainly based on the “Urban Real Estate Management Law” (1994) and “Commercial Housing Leasing Management Measures” (2010). There is no special law; there are multiple pain points in the alternative leasing market, including single, with an individual share of 83%.Attractions in cities are poor. For example, there is a 1/3 supply-demand gap in Beijing; different rights for hire purchase make it difficult for lessees to enjoy high-quality urban public resources.
4. Suggestions: Promote the reform of the housing system and long-term mechanism, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Real estate is the mother of the cycle. The housing system is the most important tool in a country and the genetic code deeply rooted in the real estate market of a country.
There are causes and consequences, and certain policies and systems have certain real market operation results.
The current problems in the domestic real estate market are at least related to the basic housing system, to achieve the policy goal of “steady land prices, stable house prices, stable expectations”, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and fundamentally solve the housing system reform and long-term management.Perfect mechanism.
(1) Continue to improve the housing market and security systems The housing system adheres to the positioning of “houses are used for living, not for speculation”, and the two systems of housing market and security are being improved to return to solving the housing problem of residents.
Market-oriented commodity housing is the mainstay, increasing the supply of various types of affordable housing, and forming a stepped housing supply structure that “high income depends on the market, middle income is supported, and low income can be guaranteed”.
In order to maintain stable house prices in the market system, the rapid growth of house prices requires flooding into the affordable housing system, and the government’s financial burden is too heavy; falling house prices will cause residents’ wealth to decrease, incomes, and market risks.
Continue to improve the housing security system with low-rent housing, public rental housing, affordable housing, shantytown transformation and resettlement housing, and common property ownership housing as the main body to reduce the number of creatures entering the door and increase the number of creatures exiting the door.
Among them, low-rent housing for families with low-income housing needs should be fully guaranteed to improve the housing conditions of lower-middle-income families; public rental housing eases the employment of newly hired homeless workers, stable employment of migrant workers in urban areas; affordable housing, and common property rightsPlacement-type security houses such as houses solve the housing problems of “sandwich floors”; resettlement houses such as sheds and houses allow the needy people in dilapidated houses in cities and towns to “go out and enter the building”.
(2) Continue to promote the housing supply system of simultaneous rental and sale, vigorously develop the housing leasing market, and improve the housing leasing system based on market allocation and the government to provide basic guarantees.
First, cultivate a diversified market supply body, including the development of housing leasing enterprises, encourage real estate development enterprises to carry out housing leasing business, standardize housing leasing agencies, and support individual rental housing.
Second, increase efforts to encourage housing rental consumption.
Legislative protection of leases, simplifying the procedures for withdrawing provident funds to pay rents, encouraging financial institutions to provide personal housing lease financial services, enriching the public services enjoyed by non-household tenants after applying for a residence permit, strengthening the protection of the tenants’ legitimate rights and interests, and maintaining a stable market rent level, etc.
Third, continue to improve housing rental support policies.
Subsidies are given to individuals and enterprises for renting housing, financial institutions are encouraged to provide financing services to housing leasing enterprises under effective risk control substitution, support for housing leasing enterprises to conduct direct financing based on controllable risks, and local governments are encouraged to increase the savings in leased housing land through multiple channels.supply.
Fourth, strengthen industry supervision and regulate industry operations.
The federal local government manages the main responsibility of the rental housing market in the region, enhances the interests of intermediary practitioners, establishes industry operating standards, discloses the credit information of management agencies and personnel, restricts the blind expansion of institutions, establishes a business deposit system, and severely punishes management agency fraud.
(3) Maintain the continuity and stability of monetary and financial policies. In the short term, real estate looks at finance. Excessive financialization of real estate is the source of risk, and financial stability is the fundamental solution.
From the international experience, if monetary and financial policies are stable, housing prices will be stable, and changes in monetary and financial policies will easily lead to bubbles.
The reason why Germany can create a miracle of long-term stability of house prices, a stable and neutral monetary policy and the housing financial system play an important role.
Japan’s two real estate bubbles and their changing monetary and financial policies are directly related.
At present, it is necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, and to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing.
The first is to adhere to differentiated housing credit policies, to support the immediate needs and to improve the group’s home ownership, and to control investment-oriented home purchases; the second is to avoid the adjustment of housing financial policies too quickly and too quickly, resulting in changes in the market in the short term and the risk of risk;The financing of housing enterprises remained stable.
Reasonably support development investment needs and avoid tight financing to drive up development costs.
Normal business should be allowed to be carried out, restricting non-standard business should be carried out step by step, open the front door and close the back door, and do not engage in a one-size-fits-all approach.
At present, it is necessary to support merger and acquisition financing, and promote the leading small and medium-sized real estate enterprises with difficulty in operating and becoming the main force to resolve real estate non-performing assets and financial risks.
(4) Linking man and land, balancing supply and demand, optimizing land supply. Real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. Population is demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.
Strengthen the supervision and statistics of the urban resident population and real estate inventory, and dynamically optimize the land supply and supply structure in different regions.
First, continue to reform and improve the “people-land linkage” policy.
At present, the “human-land link” is mainly linked to the transfer of agricultural population to the supply of construction land, and cannot resolve the contradiction between the influx of population in the focus cities and the tight supply of housing.
In the future, the relationship between the permanent population and the land supply should be gradually supplemented, the balance of inter-provincial arable land occupation and compensation should be linked to the increase and decrease of urban and rural land, and increase the supply of urban construction land.
Second, strictly implement the policy of “dealing inventory cycle and linking with land supply”.
Cities with tight real estate inventory and pressure on house prices will moderately increase construction land supply indicators, and cities with real estate inventory backlogs and housing prices with reduced risk will reduce construction land supply indicators.
Third, optimize the structure of urban industrial land, residential land and commercial land.Priority is given to housing, as well as land for education, medical care, pensions, employment and other people’s livelihood and urban infrastructure construction, and necessary industrial land should be reasonably arranged.
(V) Steady progress in real estate tax reform The fundamental purpose of real estate tax reform is to create a stable source of tax for the locality, improve the local tax system, and promote the successful transformation of “land finance” after completing the urbanization stage mission.
The reform of real estate tax is to combine property tax and urban land use tax into one, and gradually levy real estate tax on individual housing.
In terms of rhythm, legislation takes precedence, and the National People’s Congress forms a law through reorganization. When it is implemented, it fully authorizes local governments to advance step by step.
In the short term, the real estate tax will significantly affect the expectations of buying a house and impact the real estate and land markets.
In terms of implementation scope, do not advance nationwide simultaneously. You can select cities with mature conditions to conduct pilot projects first, then summarize experiences and gradually promote them.
Giving local governments more autonomy, from the main urban area to high-rises, from new houses to stock houses, from the per capita exemption of area and tax rate, etc., different cities should set different standards according to local conditions.
Real estate tax, as a property tax and a direct tax, should be fully considered in the introduction of plans for residents, and low- and middle-income families and special-purpose houses should be provided with appropriate alternatives.
(6) Improve the long-term management mechanism of real estate Based on summing up the experience and lessons of previous adjustment policies, implement and improve the long-term management mechanism of real estate steadily to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The first is to rationalize the effective short-term temporary upgrade to institutionalization, and establish a package of long-term management mechanisms such as finance, land, finance and taxation, housing security, and market management.
For example, in the first- and second-tier cities where a large number of people have flowed in, the supply of shared property and leased housing has been increased; innovative land transfer models such as “price limit, bid for land, and bid for construction” have gradually replaced the traditional model of the higher bidder, breaking through land prices and pushing up house prices.The cycle of house prices pulling up land prices; revitalizing collective land to promote the dynamic balance of land supply and demand; adhering to the decentralized credit policy, strictly preventing illegal purchases of houses by increasing leverage, and keeping residents’ leverage stable and falling.
The second is to moderately modify untimely supplementary policies, such as sales restrictions, price restrictions, and visa restrictions.
These policies are an emergency measure during the period of active real estate speculation and irrational growth of house prices. The current market has cooled down, and policies have been revised.
Restricting sales and restricting independent transactions of property rights affects the owner’s capital turnover and self-occupied house purchases; artificially distort prices to restrict prices, leading to the upside down of second-hand housing prices for new homes; restricting signings to dam the lake for online signing, and distorted house price statistics.
Third, the long-term real estate mechanism focuses on “management”, rather than unilaterally tightening and changing policies; there are policies to maintain and pressure, loose and tight, adhere to the policy of one city and one policy.
It helps local government budget decision-making power and a richer toolbox to assume local responsibilities. The central government has achieved the policy goal of “stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations” by improving the market’s monitoring, forecasting, and evaluation mechanisms.