Yongxing Materials (002756) Company Review: Discussion on the linkage mechanism of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
Lithium salt prices initially rebounded: Last week, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1%, and subsequently the price of lithium carbonate also increased slightly.
Of course, the rise in prices at this time was catalyzed by accidental factors. Under the background that the demand side was not greatly restrained, domestic 北京夜网 lithium hydroxide manufacturers were affected by the epidemic and their normal production and transportation were disturbed. This year, the lithium hydroxide market is particularly high-endThe field is already tight, so it is reasonable to adjust the ex-factory price.
At present, the market is generally more optimistic about lithium hydroxide, and lithium carbonate is expected to be cautious. After that, we will explore the logic of its price linkage.
Lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate linkage mechanism: Although the applications of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in the battery segment are different, the historical prices of each other remain consistent in the general trend.
The maximum upstream raw materials between the two are the same. After the demand of any party changes to the upstream, the cost of the other party will be affected, and the price will be linked.
At the same time, in production, there are not many technical difficulties in the conversion of lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, and the conversion cost is about 1 million, so it is difficult to allow an excessively large spread.
Of course, lithium hydroxide has higher requirements on the specifications of the raw materials, and because high-nickel ternary materials are mostly connected with giants of overseas auto companies, the biological certification and certification cycle of its product certification are significantly harsher than lithium carbonate, which has improved one of them.Directly transformed door biology in production.
Backward history of lithium hydroxide premium: Due to the close relationship between the two processes and demand, the historical price changes of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate are generally consistent, but slight differences in the structure of supply and demand still cause their price volatility to deviate in stages.
We reviewed the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate since 2016. The premium discount between the two can be clearly divided into four stages: lithium hydroxide premium (lithium hydroxide-lithium carbonate> 0): Including two phases, one is from June 2016 to October 2017. At that time, the supplementary policy obviously had a new energy vehicle with a higher energy density, which became an important driving force for driving high-nickel ternary materials.At the time of rapid expansion of lithium carbonate production, the supply of lithium hydroxide has been limited, and the price difference between the two has maintained a high level. Second, since June 2018, although demand is still strong, the rapid release of the production side has resulted in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.Prices fell simultaneously, lithium hydroxide benefited from higher supply barriers, the price fell more slowly, and the premium reappeared; lithium hydroxide discounts (lithium hydroxide-lithium carbonate <0): also divided into two phases, one is in 2016Before this month, electric buses have started to steadily increase the demand for lithium carbonate, but at this time the application of lithium hydroxide in the battery field is limited, and the difference in demand has caused a premium for lithium carbonate; the second is from November 2017 to 201In May of this year, during this period, the internal material plant began to expand production and expand the supply chain of the industrial chain. The demand for lithium carbonate increased, but at the same time, the lithium hydroxide production capacity of Yabao, Tianqi, Ganfeng and other companies began to be rapidly put into operation.Among them, the price of goods cracked, and lithium carbonate appeared premium. The supply and demand particle size of high-end lithium hydroxide is the best: We have seen that although the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate has changed in history, it is difficult to maintain its high premium for a long time due to the restriction of process conversion capabilities. From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a serious excess of lithium hydroxide. According to the global 20-throughput calculation, the industry's operating rate is only around 50% at this stage, but major downstream and downstream manufacturers have stricter product quality and consistency requirements.There are still high barriers to harsh, high-quality battery-grade lithium hydroxide. In this high-end market, the current supply is mainly concentrated in the hands of manufacturers such as Ganfeng, Tianqi, Livent and Albemarle, and the overall production capacity is at level 8 (Yahua Group 1 this year. 5There is also the possibility of entering the electrostatic capacity). With the expansion of high-nickel micro-materials manufacturers, it is expected that the demand for high-end lithium hydroxide will reach a level of more than 6 inches this year. Although the industry as a whole is in excess, the supply and demand balance will begin to appear in some areas, and the high-end market price will be the firstUsher in a rebound. At present, the lithium hydroxide premium is around 8,000 yuan, which is still lower than the conversion cost of lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide products. Therefore, the company will not have too many conversion activities. However, considering the substitution at the raw material side, if the price of lithium hydroxide continues to riseLithium carbonate is also expected to follow suit. The bottom of lithium carbonate has existed, but it has not yet reached the lead-up stage: Due to the decline in prices over the past two years, the West Australian mines at the raw material side have started to reduce production on a large scale, and the space for raw material costs and smelting processing fees to continue to be compressed has been limited. The favorable factors of the primary industry are the situation of capacity growth and the recovery of demand growth, and the degree of surplus has obviously contracted significantly. The short-term pressure is due to the destocking of the upper and middle stocks. After the stock pressure is digested, lithium carbonate is the leading condition. Yongxing's lithium carbonate business is steadily sailing: As a new entrant to the new energy industry chain, Yongxing Materials has initially been included in the graded lithium carbonate production capacity, of which the designed capacity of 5000 tons of line 1 has entered continuous production, and line 2 hasIt is in an orderly and undisturbed trial production. Although the company uses lithium mica technology to extract lithium, which is relatively small in the ore lithium extraction market, we continue to be optimistic about Yongxing's competitiveness in the lithium carbonate field. After large-scale transformation, through the realization of the entire industrial chain layout of resources, mining, beneficiation and lithium carbonate deep processing, Yongxing has become the potential of industry-scale capacity; gradually realized, Yongxing relies on a flexible and efficient management system at the high-end of stainless steel rods and wiresThe market has reached the national leading level, and the three cost control capabilities are excellent. The excellent corporate culture gene is bound to introduce the successful development of the lithium salt business. We recommend that we focus on the business progress of Yongxing Materials and confirm the industry logic.Will bring the company's expected standard of repair momentum; risk warning: the output of new energy vehicles exceeds expectations; the growth of lithium carbonate supply is too fast; Yongxing lithium battery business expansion is not smooth.